After relentless US bombing campaign, Yemen’s Houthis are biggest victors of truce

PARIS, France — Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have emerged bruised but defiant from a blistering US bombing campaign, cementing their role as one of the Middle East’s most powerful non-state actors after a truce with Washington.

US President Donald Trump said the rebels had “capitulated” after the intense, seven-week campaign that came in response to Houthi threats to renew attacks on Red Sea shipping over Israel’s blockade on Gaza.

Rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi slammed Trump’s remarks on Thursday, calling on supporters to celebrate “America’s great failure” during Friday demonstrations and labelling their campaign on the key shipping route a “total success.”

The rebels, who control swathes of Yemen, are the biggest winners of this truce, analysts told AFP, with an official confirming they will keep targeting Israeli ships in the key maritime waterway.

The Houthis — whose slogan calls for “death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews” — have been firing at Israel and on shipping routes in the Red Sea since November 2023, saying that they are doing so in a show of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza amid the war there, which erupted when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed southern Israel on October 7, 2023, to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages.

Houthi attacks on commercial shipping largely ceased six months ago, though this was after many international companies rerouted their vessels to avoid the Red Sea. Attacks on Israel and other military targets were halted for several weeks earlier this year, but restarted when a ceasefire in Gaza collapsed in early March.

The move triggered a response from the US army, which hammered the rebels with near-daily air strikes starting March 15 to keep them from threatening shipping in the key waterways.

Since March 18, when the IDF resumed its offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a ceasefire, the Houthis have launched some 27 ballistic missiles and several drones at Israel, including one missile that hit inside the grounds of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.

Israel responded Monday and Tuesday with massive airstrikes against the Houthi-controlled port and airport in Yemen.

On Tuesday, Trump made his surprise announcement that the Houthis had agreed to stop attacking shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and said that the US would halt its attacks on the Iran-backed group.

“It is at best a very unstable agreement. The Houthis’ ambitions in the Red Sea against Israel and in the region in general will not wind down,” said Thomas Juneau, a Middle East specialist at the University of Ottawa.

“This allows President Trump to claim victory, but ultimately, it is a very limited” win, he said.

The Yemeni rebels have framed the ceasefire as a victory, regularly announcing throughout the escalation that they shot down MQ-9 drones and at least three F-18 aircraft.

These losses highlight “billions spent by the US,” said Mohammed Albasha, of the US-based Basha Report Risk Advisory, noting that “none of their senior commanders were harmed.”

The recent agreement failed to curb the Houthis’ ambitions.

“On the ground, anti‑Houthi forces lacked the capacity to conduct ground operations without Emirati and Saudi backing,” Albasha said.

“Both Gulf states publicly opposed a ground offensive given their ongoing understandings with the Houthis,” he added.

The group operating out of hard-to-access mountain strongholds has withstood a decade of war against a well-armed, Saudi-led coalition.

“The nature of Houthi rule and how they operate makes them doubly resistant to airstrikes,” said Michael Shurkin of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.

“The Houthis as an organization are dispersed and rely on tribal networks. They are classic guerrilla fighters and proficient at asymmetrical warfare,” he added.

With Hamas and Hezbollah decimated by Israel, the Houthis have become Iran’s strongest ally.

“Their importance has increased,” said Juneau, adding that they had become “more indispensable in Iran’s eyes.”

Clara Broekaert, a researcher at the Soufan Center, said, “The current pause presents a strategic opportunity for the Houthis to rearm and reposition.”

But the rebels have retained a certain autonomy from their Iranian backer.

A senior member of the Revolutionary Guards is part of one of the Houthis’ essential decision-making bodies, according to Juneau.

Tehran provides them with “missile and drone technologies, military and intelligence support,” but the rebels are “not puppets acting at Iran’s whim,” he said.

“Dependency works both ways” between Iran and the rebels, he said, adding that “this gives the Houthis significant bargaining power.”

Camille Lons, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the group allows Tehran to “maintain pressure points, retain regional assets and networks in Yemen.”

Relatively unknown a decade ago, the Houthis have remained largely under the radar of Western intelligence services.

Their attacks, often with home-assembled drones and missiles, are simple but effective, dramatically reducing Red Sea shipping volumes as cargo companies have avoided the route.

It is difficult to assess the extent of their arsenal or how badly the latest US campaign has affected their military capacities.

“The assumption is that the know-how for the sophisticated weapons comes from Iran,” said Jeremy Binnie of British private intelligence firm Janes.

“Some local manufacturing is taking place to reduce the burden on the smuggling networks, although the extent that is happening isn’t particularly clear,” he said.

The Conflict Armament Research (CAR) group said the group was “attempting to use hydrogen fuel cells to power their” drones. If the experiment is successful, they would be the first non-state actor to do so.

“This is no longer a small group manufacturing underdeveloped weapons,” Lons said, underlining the increased “complexity of what the Houthis are capable of producing by themselves.”