‘An intel defeat of existential proportions’: Israeli strikes expose Iran’s vulnerability
Analysts say Iran not only failed to stop Israel’s sophisticated assault, but faces challenges in mounting an effective response against Israel or US bases in the area
Israel’s strikes on its archfoe Iran on Friday exposed severe weaknesses for Tehran that have hampered its ability to respond militarily, analysts said.
Israel said it hit 100 targets, including Iranian nuclear and military sites, in the attacks, killing senior figures, among them the armed forces’ chief and top nuclear scientists.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel it faces a “bitter and painful” fate over the attacks, but analysts say the Islamic Republic’s options are limited.
“This is an intelligence defeat of existential proportions for the Islamic Republic,” said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank.
“It exposes the vital vulnerability of the regime’s military and security apparatus and its key infrastructures — including nuclear — as well as its top political and military leadership,” he told AFP. “All this is meant, inter alia, to cripple Tehran’s command and counter-strike capacities.”
The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, accuse Iran of seeking to obtain a nuclear weapon. While Tehran denies such a desire, it has enriched uranium to levels that have no peaceful application, denied inspectors access to its nuclear facilities, and has consistently affirmed its desire to destroy Israel.
A landmark 2015 accord provided Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic program, but it fell apart after Trump halted US participation in 2018, during his first term.
Western nations in recent days accused Tehran of deliberately escalating its nuclear program, despite several rounds of US-Iran talks for a new accord.
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday it would “significantly” increase production of enriched uranium, after the UN’s nuclear watchdog found Tehran in breach of its obligations.
Israel has previously carried out attacks in the Islamic Republic in response to missile strikes from Iran, including against military targets in October last year, but Friday’s attacks were unprecedented.
“The Israel campaign is sweeping in scope and sophistication,” said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group.
“We may still only be in the early stages of a prolonged operation that continues to expand, disrupting Iran’s ability to either formulate or execute a response.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned his country’s military operation would “continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.”
Friday’s strikes killed Iran’s highest-ranking military officer, armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian media reported.
A senior advisor to Khamenei was also wounded, state television said.
Clement Therme, of Sorbonne University, said that “to retaliate, the regime seems to be in a bind.”
“Either it targets US bases in the region and jeopardizes its future, or it targets Israel, but we see that its military capabilities are limited,” he said.
The Israeli military said Iran launched around 100 drones against it, but its air defenses intercepted “most” of them outside Israeli territory.
Israel, which largely relies on US diplomatic and military support, carried out the attack despite Trump’s public urging for it to give time for diplomacy.
Trump’s Middle East point man, Steve Witkoff, had been set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman.
A Western diplomat earlier this year described Iran’s economy as “cataclysmic,” saying the country had “a gigantic need for the lifting of sanctions, reforms, a cleanup of the banking system, and foreign investments.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the strikes were “designed to kill President Trump’s chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear program.”
“It is highly unlikely that in these conditions, Iran will proceed with the Omani-mediated talks scheduled for Sunday,” she added.
But, after the strikes, a US official said Washington still hoped the Sunday talks would go ahead.
Trump urged Iran to “make a deal, before there is nothing left,” warning that otherwise there will be more “death and destruction.”
Vaez warned that the strategy may not work.
“Rather than prompt Iranian concessions, it could also lead to a doubling down by Tehran,” he said. “Setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent.”
The Times of Israel Staff contributed to this report.
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