As Iran and Hezbollah attacks loom, why hasn’t the IDF adjusted civilian guidelines?
Israel is seeking to offer early-enough warning, without dragging restrictions on for too long or burning intelligence sources
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian is The Times of Israel's military correspondent
With Israelis on edge over potential Iranian and Hezbollah attacks on the country in response to the recent assassinations of terror group leaders, the Israeli military has yet to adjust emergency guidelines for civilians.
Despite the deep concern among the public, as reports and rumors have swirled regarding the timing and scope of potential attacks, Israel Defense Forces Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari in several recent press conferences has pledged only that the military would update the guidelines once necessary.
In the event of an emergency, the IDF Home Front Command can announce restrictions on gatherings, the education system, and workplaces in specific areas, or across the country. The Home Front Command also has the ability to notify civilians in a given area to stay close to or inside bomb shelters until further notice, either via its mobile application or using its new Cell Broadcast system.
The final method of notifying civilians is using sirens placed across the country, when an attack is already underway.
Still, the IDF does not expect to be surprised by the attack — as the military is currently hyper-focused on Hezbollah and Iran — and some kind of early warning would be given to civilians, hours or, at worst, several minutes, in advance.
But how early a warning can or should the IDF give?
Israeli defense officials recognize that it is impractical to hold Israeli civilians under strict guidelines for lengthy periods. The IDF faced harsh criticism in 2022 for locking thousands of residents of communities near the Gaza border in their homes and closing train lines for several days, after the military had early indications of an imminent Palestinian Islamic Jihad attack.
It would be even more difficult to order similar restrictions in the much larger areas that could come under attack now, such as the northern city of Haifa or central Israel’s Tel Aviv.
Additionally, Israel does not want to give its civilians too early a warning, fearing that its enemies would identify this and adjust the timing, scope, or other elements of their attack plan. That could result in the restrictions remaining in place for even longer.
The IDF also fears that sending out an early warning could burn its intelligence sources.
Therefore, the military seeks to find a balance — giving civilians an early enough warning to prepare for a potential large-scale attack, while not causing Iran or Hezbollah to adjust their plans.
The IDF Home Front Command may gradually adjust guidelines in some areas when an imminent attack is expected, such as limiting gatherings or schools, but not immediately order full-blown restrictions.
Once an attack is about to be carried out, more severe restrictions could be imposed.
In the worst-case scenario, if the IDF is surprised by an attack — which is unlikely — it would not be able to give any warning before sirens are sounded, whereupon civilians would need to seek immediate shelter.
In Iran’s April attack — during which more than 300 drones and missiles were launched at Israel — the IDF updated its guidelines at around 8:30 p.m., as the first drones were launched and made their hours-long way to the country.
Only at around 1 a.m. were residents of the Golan Heights, the Nevatim area in southern Israel, Dimona, and Eilat, told to remain close to bomb shelters. Around half an hour later, sirens began to sound in southern Israel, and not long after in other parts of the country.
Israel expects Lebanon’s Hezbollah to respond to the killing of its top military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut more than a week ago. Iran has also vowed to respond to the alleged assassination by Israel of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh hours later in Tehran.
It remains unclear if Hezbollah and Iran would carry out a simultaneous attack. Some Israeli officials believe that the Lebanese terror group will attack first as Iran has not yet decided on its method of response to the killing in Tehran.
Regardless, Israel remains on heightened alert for the potential attacks, and officials have publicly warned that the country would swiftly respond.
