As Iran sends forces to Syria, IDF warns it not to smuggle arms to Hezbollah

The military on Monday said it would ensure Iran does not smuggle weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon as the Islamic Republic sends reinforcements to its ally Syrian President Bashar Assad to counter an ongoing rebel assault.

Speaking to Sky News Arabia, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the military is closely following the events in Syria and has observed Tehran sending forces to bolster Assad’s regime.

Hagari said that “Syria belongs to the Syrians” and that “what is happening in Syria concerns Syria and not Israel” — but the IDF “will make sure that Iran does not smuggle weapons to Lebanon and Hezbollah.”

“We need to make sure that we are not threatened. We are a sovereign country and we will make sure that Iranian weapons are not smuggled to Hezbollah,” he said.

“Hezbollah was defeated in the campaign and it is necessary to make sure that it does not receive weapons from Iran through Syria,” Hagari said.

“And if they try to do it, we will act accordingly,” he added.

Israel has already operated against suspected attempts to rearm Hezbollah, and over the weekend blocked an Iranian flight over Syria that was believed to have been ferrying arms to the terror group.

The ongoing rebel offensive in Syria was launched last week just as a ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which had suffered serious setbacks to its manpower and arsenal in an intensified Israeli campaign aimed at neutralizing the threat posed by the terror group.

Iran said on Monday that it plans to keep military advisers in Syria after the city of Aleppo was overrun by the rebels.

The Islamic Republic, which together with Hezbollah has backed Assad since Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, says it only deploys military advisers in the country at the invitation of Damascus.

“Our military advisers were present in Syria, and they are still present” and would remain in the country “in accordance with the wishes” of its government, Esmaeil Baqaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, told a news conference in Tehran.

Baqaei did not specify whether Iran would be increasing its forces in Syria in the wake of the lightning rebel offensive.

His remarks come a day after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to show support for the Syrian president.

Dozens of Iran-backed Iraqi militias have also crossed into Syria to back government forces in the north of the country.

Tehran-aligned Iraqi Hashd al Shaabi fighters have crossed into Syria through a military route near the Al Bukamal crossing, a senior Syrian army source told Reuters.

“These are fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the front lines in the north,” the officer said, adding that the militias included Iraq’s Katiab Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups.

US, UAE discuss lifting Syria sanctions of Assad cuts Iran ties

The latest developments on the battlefield came after the United States and the United Arab Emirates discussed the possibility of lifting sanctions on Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah, five people familiar with the matter said.

The conversations intensified in recent months, the sources said, driven by the possible expiration on December 20 of sweeping US sanctions on Syria and by Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian assets in Syria.

The discussions took place before the rebel offensive.

According to the sources, the new rebel advance is a signal of precisely the sort of weakness in Assad’s alliance with Iran that the Emirati and US initiative aims to exploit. But if Assad embraces Iranian help for a counter-offensive, that could also complicate efforts to drive a wedge between them, the sources said.

Reuters spoke to two US sources, four Syrian and Lebanese interlocutors, and two foreign diplomats who said the US and UAE see a window to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, which helped him recapture swaths of his country during the civil war.

Lebanese media outlets have reported that Israel suggested lifting US sanctions on Syria. But the UAE initiative with the US has not previously been reported. All of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the backroom diplomacy.

Syria’s government and the White House did not respond to questions from Reuters. The UAE referred Reuters to its statement on bin Zayed’s call with Assad.

A senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran told Reuters Iran had been informed “about behind-the-scenes efforts by some Arab countries to isolate Iran… by distancing Syria from Tehran.”

The diplomat said those efforts were linked to offers of possible sanctions relief by Washington.

A US source familiar with the matter said White House officials discussed an overture with Emirati officials, citing the UAE’s interest in financing Syria’s reconstruction and Assad’s “weakened position” after Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah.

In recent months, Hezbollah withdrew its operatives from Syria, including the north, to focus on battling Israel in southern Lebanon. The rebels who swept this week into Aleppo pointed to the terror group’s withdrawal as one of the reasons they faced little resistance from government forces.

Hezbollah bases and weapons shipments through Syria have been repeatedly hit by Israel, which has sought to weaken Iran across the region.

The possibility of sanctions relief for Assad, while Israel was hitting Iran’s allies, created an “opportunity” to apply a “carrot-and-stick approach” to fracture Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, the US source said.

Sanctions relief

The US placed sanctions on Syria after Assad cracked down against protests against him in 2011, and the sanctions were repeatedly tightened in the years of war that followed. The toughest, known as the Caesar Act, passed Congress in 2019.

The Caesar sanctions apply across Syrian business sectors, to anyone dealing with Syria regardless of nationality, and to those dealing with Russian and Iranian entities in Syria.

Assad said they amounted to economic warfare, blaming them for the Syrian currency’s collapse and drop in living standards.

The sanctions will “sunset” — or expire — on December 20 unless renewed by US lawmakers.

Part of the recent American-Emirati discussions centered on allowing Caesar sanctions to expire without renewal, said the US source and three of the Syrian interlocutors.

One Syrian interlocutor said the UAE had raised the idea of letting them expire with White House officials two months ago, after having unsuccessfully pushed for at least two years of sanctions relief for Assad after a deadly earthquake in February 2023.

Arab states have other potential avenues to reward Assad for distancing himself from Iran.

A foreign diplomat based in the Gulf told Reuters both the UAE and Saudi Arabia had in recent months offered “financial incentives” to Assad to split with Iran, saying they could not have been made without coordination with Washington.

A Lebanese interlocutor said the UAE had also pledged funds to help Syria rebuild war-ravaged infrastructure as a way to “pull Assad further away from Iran.”

Iran has warned Assad not to stray far.

The senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei conveyed a message via his senior adviser Ali Larijani, who told Assad: “Do not forget the past.”

“The message served as a reminder to Assad of who his true allies are,” the diplomat said.

‘Playing with fire’

Since Hamas terrorists launched its massacre on Israel on October 7 last year precipitating war in Gaza, Iran has mobilized its network of allies to hit Israel.

But Assad has largely avoided joining in, even as Israel struck Hezbollah targets in his country and reportedly bombed an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus.

A US official said Assad had “sat out” the war to avoid further Israeli strikes on Syria, and remained under “tremendous pressure” not to allow Hezbollah to rearm through his country.

Israel has signaled that it still has eyes on Syria. When announcing the truce with Lebanon last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had been thwarting attempts by Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria’s army to bring weapons into Lebanon.

“Assad must understand – he is playing with fire,” Netanyahu said.