Before Oct. 7, Netanyahu was repeatedly told internal rift emboldening enemies – report

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received repeated strategic warnings from senior security officials in the seven months leading up the October 7, 2023, massacre that Israel’s internal divisions were eroding deterrence, emboldening Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, and increasing the danger of a multifront war, according to a TV expose on Wednesday, the third anniversary of the attack.

The Channel 12 report revealed what it said were previously unpublished portions of letters, documents and communications delivered to Netanyahu between March and September 2023 by senior defense officials, including then-IDF chief Herzi Halevi, then-defense minister Yoav Gallant, then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Military Intelligence officers.

Netanyahu dismissed the report as “false political propaganda” aimed at bringing down his government in the coming October 27 national election.

None of the warnings cited by the network specifically predicted the October 7 Hamas attack, but rather warned of a growing strategic danger of escalation as Israel’s enemies perceived the country to be weakening, especially due to the societal rift over the government’s judicial overhaul program.

In January 2023, the government announced sweeping reforms to the judiciary that critics said would neuter the democratic institutions of the country. Protests were held across the country, led by a weekly mass rally in Tel Aviv.

As the government continued with its plan, some army reservists, including pilots, said they would stop serving in protest, sparking alarm that the IDF would not be able to fulfill operational duties.

The Channel 12 report came on the heels of other Hebrew media reports in recent weeks that said Netanyahu had received warnings from the United Arab Emirates and Egypt that Hamas was preparing serious action before October 7, 2023.

According to the network, on March 19, then-Military Intelligence Research Division chief Amit Saar warned Netanyahu that Israel’s enemies were debating whether to “sit on the fence and allow Israel to continue to weaken itself” or to take action to further worsen the situation.

Two days later, Halevi sent Netanyahu what Channel 12 described as his first strategic warning letter, writing that Israel’s internal crisis had become “a central factor” in its enemies’ assessments and was leading them to consider “advancing offensive measures.” Halevi offered to further brief Netanyahu and other officials, but a source familiar with the letter said no such discussion was held.

Halevi declined to provide Channel 12 with the full letter, telling the network he would present it to a state commission of inquiry.

That month, Gallant publicly warned that the internal rifts over the judicial overhaul had come to constitute a tangible threat to the security of the country. Netanyahu fired him, but later reinstated him amid massive nationwide protests.

The warnings intensified in the following months. On April 12, Military Intelligence reportedly told Netanyahu the likelihood of a multifront military escalation had reached its highest level since the Second Lebanon War of 2006. On July 16, Saar, the Military Intelligence research chief, reportedly warned that the political and social crisis was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Days later, Halevi sent another letter warning that Israel’s enemies sensed erosion in three pillars of its deterrence: IDF strength, societal cohesion and ties with the US.

Netanyahu reacted angrily to the letter, according to Channel 12, suggesting those protesting against the overhaul were to blame: “It’s not us. They should talk to those people [protesting] on Kaplan [Street in Tel Aviv].”

The network said Bar also told Netanyahu directly by secure phone: “Mr. Prime Minister, I am giving you a strategic warning of war,” cautioning that Israel was losing its ability to predict developments across the various fronts and that “something serious could happen.”

Further warnings followed in August, according to Channel 12, which said Bar warned lawmakers that Israel was approaching a “perfect storm.”

Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief who is now Netanyahu’s top rival in the upcoming election, separately wrote Netanyahu warning of significant deterioration in parts of the IDF’s readiness, particularly the Air Force, the network added, saying the Prime Minister’s Office replied that “the matter is being handled.”

On September 7, exactly one month before the Hamas attack, Gallant sent Netanyahu a seven-page letter, portions of which Channel 12 said it was revealing for the first time. Citing Military Intelligence assessments, Gallant reportedly warned that the worsening internal crisis was eroding Israel’s image among its enemies, damaging deterrence and increasing the likelihood of escalation.

According to the report, which cited an unnamed source familiar with developments, Netanyahu saw concerns among top security officials as an attempt to undermine the government.

At a July meeting with top army commanders, he was quoted as saying, “I put NIS 80 billion ($26 billion) on you every year, and you are giving me a rebellion.”

However, Halevi, the army chief, reportedly told Netanyahu more than once that he was not adopting a political stance, but rather presenting the deteriorating security situation and mood in the IDF, according to the report.

Netanyahu’s Likud responded to the Channel 12 report with a statement calling it “false political propaganda against Prime Minister Netanyahu and Likud.”

Netanyahu “did not receive any early warning before October 7 of an attack from the Gaza Strip or Hamas. The opposite is true. The security heads claimed time and again that Hamas is deterred, that it wants an arrangement, and that it should be given humanitarian relief in order to ‘keep things quiet.'”

The statement included a list of dated intelligence reports that it said back up the claim that security assessments pointed to no significant threat from Gaza.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, in a response posted to his X account, asked why Netanyahu had ignored so many warnings, and added: “Why is he so afraid of a state commission of inquiry?”

Eisenkot said in a statement, “Three years of miserable attempts to escape responsibility. To make people forget the disaster. To evade the truth, the warnings that were given, the alarms that were sounded, the bells that rang.”

On October 7, 2023, Hamas led thousands of terrorists to invade southern Israel, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 captive, thereby triggering a devastating multifront war.

Halevi, Bar, and other senior military and security figures resigned over the attack. Netanyahu has blamed the security establishment for the failure to anticipate and prevent the attack, with his allies peddling conspiracy theories that said defense officials had advance knowledge but chose not to act. Critics accuse Netanyahu of shirking responsibility.

At a national memorial ceremony in Tel Aviv’s Yarkon Park on Wednesday evening commemorating the third anniversary of the attack, participants called for a state commission of inquiry into the failures that enabled the Hamas assault.

Netanyahu has resisted forming a state commission of inquiry, the highest investigative body in Israel, despite demands from bereaved families and survivors, and the majority of the country.

He did not attend any of the memorial ceremonies held on Wednesday, instead only taking part in the official state ceremonies on Monday.