Hamas officials’ ties with Iran could determine who will replace Haniyeh
Ruling out Mashaal, analysts say slain terror leader’s replacement must have good relations with Shiite powers, as Hamas looks to Iran for post-war support
In choosing its next leader, the Hamas terror group will be looking for a candidate who can safeguard deep ties with Tehran, as Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the group recover after the Gaza war, analysts say.
Hamas has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week in an attack widely blamed on Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. They include former leader Khaled Mashaal, who led Hamas for 13 years from outside the Palestinian territories, before passing the baton to Haniyeh in 2017.
But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Shiite Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar Assad. Mashaal was Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the Arab Spring and declared sympathy with the Sunni-led rebellion against him.
Iran’s support will be doubly important to Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza. The territory has been devastated by the fighting in the months since October 7 of last year, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, taking 251 hostages, and sparking the ongoing war. One hundred and eleven of the hostages are still held in Gaza; 39 of them are said by the IDF to be dead.
While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pummeling by Israel have hit it hard. Israel is seeking to dismantle the military and governance capabilities of the terror group, which seized control of the Strip from the Palestinian Authority’s Fatah faction in 2005 and is avowedly committed to destroying Israel.
This consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates deemed closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as Hamas’s deputy leader for Gaza, though he left the territory some years ago.
“There might have been some retreat in Mashaal’s chances of taking the place of Haniyeh, because he doesn’t enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended the Hamas presence in Damascus,” said Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram.
“Also the armed wing, which is keen on the concept of rebuilding when the war is over, will be thinking of a candidate whose relations with Iran are strong enough to ensure the rebuilding takes place,” he said.
One Hamas official told Reuters the succession had not been settled yet and the deliberations are underway.
Hayya says Hamas leadership united
Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. He accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which the Hamas leader was killed in July.
Hayya led Hamas’s negotiating team for hostage-ceasefire talks under Haniyeh’s supervision and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas’s Palestinian rival Fatah in past years.
Like Haniyeh, he maintained strong relations with Iran and in 2022, he led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, declaring it a historic meeting.
Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniyeh’s death in Qatar, Hayya said the movement’s leadership remained united.
“Our will is strong and can’t be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three,” he said. “God willing, within days, we will conclude our consultations to choose a new leader.”
Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less extraordinary times the group’s Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would have been a candidate.
The mastermind of the October 7 invasion and slaughter, Sinwar is widely believed to still be running Hamas’s war from tunnels under Gaza.
Hayya’s chances are helped by his good ties to the Shiite terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, the region’s most powerful Iran-aligned faction, which has been trading fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.
Masri noted Mashaal’s leadership qualities and experience, but said his prospects hinged on healing the rift with Iran: “His weak point is his negative relationships with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time when there is… a joint war.”
