Hezbollah has lost its leader before. Will it manage without Nasrallah?
Experts say death of terror chief will greatly aggravate already fraught moment for group lashed by repeated IDF strikes
BEIRUT (Reuters) — The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will deal a significant blow to the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group he has led for 32 years, analysts said after Israel targeted him in an airstrike.
The IDF confirmed on Saturday morning that Nasrallah was killed, ending hours of uncertainty regarding his fate. An Israeli official had told The Times of Israel late Friday that it was unlikely Nasrallah survived the strike.
Replacing Nasrallah will be an even bigger challenge now than at any point for years, after a series of recent Israeli attacks that have killed top Hezbollah commanders and raised questions over its internal security.
“The whole landscape would change big time,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, speaking before Nasrallah’s death was confirmed.
“He has been the glue that has held together an expanding organization,” Hage Ali said.
Hezbollah, which was formed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the early 1980s to battle Israel, is also a major social, religious and political movement for Lebanese Shi’ite Muslims, with Nasrallah at its heart.
“He became a legendary figure for the Lebanese Shia,” said Hage Ali.
Nasrallah became Hezbollah leader when Israel killed his predecessor, and he has been at constant risk of assassination ever since.
“You kill one, they get a new one,” said a European diplomat of the group’s approach.
However, amid a sudden series of Israeli successes in its war against Hezbollah and an onslaught of air strikes, his death greatly aggravates an already fraught moment for the terror group.
“Hezbollah will not collapse if Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated, but this will be a major blow to the group’s morale. It would also underline Israel’s security and military superiority and access,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House policy institute in London, also speaking before Nasrallah’s death was confirmed by Israel.
The impact of Nasrallah’s death on Hezbollah’s military capabilities is also unclear. Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire for a year across the Lebanese border in their worst conflict since 2006. Hezbollah began firing into Israel on October 8, a day after Hamas massacred some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages in a rampage through southern Israel.
“Israel will want to translate this pressure into a new status quo in which its north is secure, but this will not happen quickly even if Nasrallah is eliminated,” Khatib said.
Hezbollah claimed several rocket attacks on Israel in the hours after the Beirut strike in what analysts said was an effort to show it could still carry out such operations after Israel targeted Hezbollah’s command center.
“Israel has declared war. It is a full-scale war, and Israel is using this opportunity to eliminate the leadership structure and destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure,” said Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
“They are breaking Hezbollah’s power. There’s no need to kill every member of Hezbollah, but if you destroy its combat structure and force them to surrender. It loses credibility,” Gerges said.
Successors
A new leader will have to be acceptable within the organization in Lebanon but also to its backers in Iran, said Philip Smyth, an expert on Shi’ite armed groups.
The man widely regarded as Nasrallah’s heir, Hashem Safieddine, was still alive after Friday’s attack, a source close to Hezbollah claimed.
Safieddine, who oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs and sits on the group’s Jihad Council, is a cousin of Nasrallah and like him is a cleric who wears the black turban denoting descent from Islam’s Prophet Mohammed.
The US State Department designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017 and in June he threatened a big escalation against Israel after the killing of another Hezbollah commander. “Let (the enemy) prepare himself to cry and wail,” he said at the funeral.
Nasrallah “started tailoring positions for him within a variety of different councils within Lebanese Hezbollah. Some of them were more opaque than others. They’ve had him come, go out and speak,” said Smyth.
Safieddine’s family ties and physical resemblance to Nasrallah as well as his religious status as a descendent of Mohammed would all count in his favor, Smyth said.
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
