In upset, Brazil’s anti-Israel incumbent Lula defeats Flavio Bolsonaro in presidential runoff

Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pulled off a dramatic comeback on Sunday as he clinched a re-election victory, but his rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, refused to accept the loss and said he would seek to annul the vote.

Bolsonaro had been widely expected to win after leading in the first round of voting. No candidate who lost the first round has gone on to win the second in Brazil since 1989, the first direct election after the end of the country’s military dictatorship.

With Lula’s victory, Brazil staved off a conservative wave that has seen numerous countries — such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru — all shift right, backed by US President Donald Trump.

The leftist icon, who turns 81 on Tuesday, defied projections to win an unprecedented fourth term.

According to official results, he won 51.8 percent of the votes to 48.2% for Bolsonaro, with Lula pulling around 4.4 million more votes.

The defeated senator is a supporter of Israel and the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year jail term for attempting a coup after his loss to Lula in the country’s last election in 2022.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invited Bolsonaro to Israel, and both expressed a desire to renew close ties between the countries.

Lula has been a fierce critic of Israel, accusing it of committing genocide in Gaza during its war against Hamas, and has said the only historical equivalent was “when Hitler decided to kill the Jews.”

Israel, which vehemently rejects the accusations, launched its war following the terror group’s October 7, 2023 massacre. Yad Vashem chairman Dani Dayan said Lula’s comments were “an outrageous combination of hatred and ignorance.”

Sunday’s vote was marked by confusion after a Supreme Court ruling extended voting by two hours as some polling stations had already closed.

The move came at the request of Lula, who complained that buses had been pulled from circulation in various cities, barring citizens from voting.

Flavio Bolsonaro also requested an extension in some regions due to heavy rains, but he described the court’s decision as “unacceptable” and a “dirty trick.”

“It is impossible to recognize the results. I am going to request the annulment of these elections,” he said, stone-faced, in a brief speech in Brasilia.

Lula said in his first comments after the win: “People went to vote because we managed to convince them that voting was very important for ensuring democracy in the country.”

Fireworks and vuvuzelas rang out in Rio de Janeiro, while thousands of people dressed in red, the color of Lula’s Workers’ Party, streamed into the streets of Sao Paulo to celebrate.

Lula’s fight back

After the first-round defeat, the left swung into action with massive rallies, declaring “Never Again Bolsonaro” and revamped their social media strategy.

The abstention rate decreased from the first round, falling from 21 percent to 19 percent.

Julio Canelo, 42, a lawyer celebrating in Rio de Janeiro, hailed a victory for “the entire democratic spectrum.”

“It was the result of the people mobilizing, in the streets and online,” he told AFP.

A fierce social media battle drew in Meta, parent company of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, which Lula’s campaign accused of favoring his opponent with “algorithmic manipulation.”

Meta denied this but acknowledged that some of Lula’s campaign ads had been mistakenly deactivated due to technical errors.

“We are going to have to regulate them,” Lula said of social media companies after his win.

A bitter campaign marred by scandals and mudslinging laid bare the deep divisions that have plagued Brazil over the past decade.

A country split in two

Lula heads into a fourth term with almost half of the nation having rejected him, desperate for change.

He rose from poverty to become president in 2003 and was re-elected in 2006.

Lula made a dramatic return to office in the 2022 elections after a corruption scandal saw him jailed for over 18 months.

The charges were annulled on procedural grounds.

In his third term, Lula oversaw a drop in inflation and unemployment, and lifted millions out of hunger, but many voters felt gloomy about the high cost of living and crime.

At times, Lula’s reelection looked like a long shot, as voters soured on him and his Workers’ Party after years of corruption scandals and rising prices, while sweeping social changes left the former metalworker and union leader looking out of touch with an increasingly app-based economy and its growing ranks of informal workers.

Already one of the world’s oldest leaders, Lula will be 85 by the end of his new term in 2030.

Bolsonaro, 45, pitched himself as more moderate and jovial than his father and managed to galvanize conservatives as well as less ideological voters wanting something new.

Leonardo Barreto, the co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters had chosen Lula’s familiar embrace over Bolsonaro’s novelty.

“People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights,” he said.

Lula’s campaign this year mixed the kind of pragmatism and populism that has shaped his career in national politics for half a century, rolling out a slew of reforms aimed at improving the lives of workers and poor Brazilians.

These gained steam with late-campaign pledges that ranged from free nationwide weekend public ​transport, which has to be formally submitted to Congress, to a ‌15% increase in his trademark welfare program that is already being implemented.

“We’re in a deep hole, things are dire. People can barely afford to eat — buying meat is out of the question,” said Tereza Cristina Ramos, a 68-year-old retiree, who voted in Rio de Janeiro.

Lula warned Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending, backslide on social advances and hand over Brazil’s sovereignty to Trump, whose State Department led a campaign to get the Bolsonaros back to power.

“This country will not accept being anyone’s backyard,” he said Sunday.

Lula received congratulations from Chile’s far-right president, Jose Antonio Kast, and Ecuador’s right-wing Daniel Noboa — both close Trump allies.

Mexico’s left-wing President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote on X, saying “Long live democracy, the people of Brazil won.”

Challenges ahead

Still, Lula’s fourth term could be his most difficult yet, after Brazil elected its most conservative Congress since returning to democracy in the 1980s.

Combined, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and allied parties could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable opposition majorities in both chambers.

That may deepen recent trends of presidents ceding power to Congress on the budget, major legislation and key nominations.

Lula faces an economy that his government forecasts will grow just 2.3% next year, adding to fiscal concerns tied to high interest rates and public debt that has risen past 82% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic.

Goldman Sachs said it expects Lula to make modest progress at most to contain spending in a fourth term, as he stays committed to a state-led growth model.

Surging household debt also concerns economists. Trying to address the issue, Lula rolled out a provisional ban on online betting and unveiled a new debt relief program during the campaign.

The incoming right-wing Congress will try to pass structural reforms that favor businesses, experts say, prompting spending cuts that could trigger popular backlash.