Iran could rethink Israel attack amid strong diplomatic pressure from US – report
Show of US military strength could play role in Tehran lessening its threat, report claims, alongside Iran’s understanding that bomb that killed Hamas leader detonated remotely
White House officials believe that intensive diplomatic efforts to temper Iran’s retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week may be having an effect, the Washington Post said on Tuesday, while also reporting that the Biden administration was enraged by the timing of the assassination.
The Middle East has been bracing for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following Haniyeh’s death, along with the killing of top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut hours earlier. While Israel has not commented publicly on Haniyeh’s death, Tehran has blamed Jerusalem and vowed that it must be made to pay the price.
A blitz of diplomatic efforts in recent days has seen the US — along with its allies in the West and the Middle East — push both Iran and Israel to cool tensions and prevent the region from erupting into all-out war.
Commenting on the efforts, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that Washington had communicated to both Israel and Iran that conflict must not escalate.
“It’s urgent that everyone in the region take stock of the situation, understand the risk of miscalculation, and make decisions that will calm tensions, not exacerbate them,” the top diplomat said at the end of a meeting with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles. “We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran. We’ve communicated that message directly to Israel.”
While the risk of an Iranian attack is still high, White House officials told The Washington Post that the American efforts may be starting to pay off and that there was a possibility that Iran would reconsider its position.
According to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Tehran has privately concluded that Haniyeh was killed not by a precision missile but by a bomb that had been previously smuggled into the room he was staying in and detonated remotely, as reports have suggested.
This understanding could lead Tehran to step down from its threat to attack Israel, the officials said, adding that Iran itself has carried out similar attacks in foreign countries in the past.
Washington’s willingness to flex its military muscles in the region may also be causing Iran to think twice, according to one senior Biden administration official, who told the Post that Iran “understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has laid out several US military steps in recent days to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies, and to safeguard US troops, including the deployments of additional fighter jets. He also said the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier will replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the region “later this month.”
According to a US official, about a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets and an E-2D Hawkeye surveillance aircraft from the USS Theodore Roosevelt flew from the Gulf of Oman to a military base in the Middle East on Monday.
The Navy jets’ land-based deployment is expected to be temporary because a squadron of Air Force F-22 fighter jets is en route to the same base from their home station in Alaska. The roughly dozen F-22s are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
It’s not clear how long all of the aircraft will remain together at the base, and that may depend on what — if anything — happens in the next few days.
“What I’ve been focused on is making sure that we’re doing everything we can to put measures in place to protect our troops and also make sure that we’re in a good position to aid in the defense of Israel, if called upon to do that,” Austin said on Tuesday during a press conference following the meeting with the Australian leaders.
The moves made good on the promise that US President Joe Biden made to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, which was issued despite the president being reportedly enraged over the killing of Haniyeh.
Israel informed the US that it was behind the assassination of Haniyeh — a matter it has not commented on publicly — immediately after the event, sources familiar with the White House’s thought process told the Post.
The anger stemmed from concern that the assassination may have doomed the months-long negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, according to the sources.
They added that the US is also frustrated over the timing of the Beirut strike that took out Hezbollah’s Shukr, which took place just hours before Haniyeh was killed. It believes that both assassinations were “tactically brilliant but strategically unwise,” the Post alleged.
However, a US official speaking to The Times of Israel rejected the Post’s characterization of Washington’s reaction, saying the White House was not outraged at Israel.
The US official stressed that Haniyeh was a Hamas leader who celebrated the October 7 onslaught, so there is no remorse or mourning over his killing.
The official acknowledged that the Biden administration was surprised and concerned about the timing of the assassination and the manner in which it was carried out.
Israel has long told the US that it would try and take out every Hamas leader, but the operation inside Iran was highly provocative, the US official said.
Despite concerns that the negotiations to halt the ten-month-old war in Gaza — which began with the October 7 Hamas terror onslaught in southern Israel — were in jeopardy, Blinken said on Tuesday that they were in their final stage and should end very soon.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials denied reports that the country was expecting a shipment of new Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, Radio Free Europe reported.
The report that Iran would be receiving the fighter jets had been published by sources close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, RFE said, but was later retracted following a discussion with the Iranian defense ministry.
No tolerance for attacks on US troops
As Israel and the US gird for an Iranian attack that could overshadow the unprecedented April assault — during which more than 300 drones and missiles were launched at Israel — Austin warned that the US would not hesitate to also respond to a Monday attack on US forces in Iraq by an Iranian-backed militia.
Seven US personnel were injured in the attack.
“Make no mistake, the United States will not tolerate attacks on our personnel in the region,” Austin told reporters at a press conference, “and we remain ready to deploy on short notice to meet the evolving threats to our security, our partners or our interests.”
He said an “Iranian-backed Shia militia group” conducted the attack, but officials are still trying to determine which one.
US officials speaking on the condition of anonymity released more details about the attack on the al-Asad airbase, which they said injured five US troops and two contractors.
The officials said five of those injured were being treated at the airbase and two were evacuated, but all seven were in stable condition. They did not provide details on who was evacuated.
The rocket attack is the latest in what has been an uptick in strikes on US forces by Iranian-backed militias. It is not believed to be connected to the Hezbollah and Hamas killings.
In recent weeks, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have resumed launching attacks on bases housing US forces in Iraq and Syria after a lull of several months, following a strike on a base in Jordan in late January that killed three American soldiers and prompted a series of retaliatory US strikes.
Between October and January, an umbrella group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq had regularly claimed attacks that it said were in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza and were aimed at pushing US troops out of the region.
Until now, the Iraqi militias have been loosely organized, but a report from Israel’s Channel 12 on Tuesday indicated that this may soon change.
According to the report, Iran has begun consolidating the militias into one unified Iraqi militant group it is calling the Qassem Soleimani Forces.
The Iran-backed group will have around 10,000 fighters, Channel 12 reported, and its numbers will be bolstered by around 1,600 Houthi militants from Yemen.
