Iran stalling on deal with US to hurt Trump politically ahead of midterms, Iranian officials say
Talks also hampered by deep distrust between the two nations as threat of renewed attacks looms; 2 tankers said to go up in flames after hitting mines in Hormuz
Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to politically weaken its president, Donald Trump, ahead of November’s US midterm elections, senior Iranian officials say, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have also reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war.
Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran was convinced that Trump was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war, which began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Israel has largely stayed out of the fighting since April but has recently indicated that combat may resume surrounding its own election next week.
The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has sought to obstruct since the beginning of the war, has seen ongoing clashes. Multiple tankers hit mines or otherwise encountered military forces on Tuesday.
“Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one of the officials said. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”
The war has helped drive Trump’s approval rating to a record low as polls suggest that Americans worried about high gasoline prices will punish his Republican Party in the November 3 midterm vote, which will decide control of Congress.
Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said that, by prolonging the talks, “Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action.”
Trump has repeatedly said he expects oil prices to drop after the elections, but has not offered a detailed plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route effectively closed by Iran since the war began. The US has blockaded Iranian ports in response.
Iranian attacks, both threatened and real, have kept ship traffic through the strait to a trickle, while the US blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran’s oil export revenues and exacerbated growing domestic economic woes.
With Tehran refusing to make concessions it believes could benefit Trump politically, there is little chance of a breakthrough before the US elections in two weeks, the officials said.
Washington wants Iran’s decades-long nuclear program on the table from the outset. Israel also seeks an end to Iran’s nuclear program. While Tehran says the program is peaceful, it has enriched uranium to levels beyond any civilian use, blocked inspectors and built a ballistic missile program.
For its part, Tehran insists that conditions it laid out under a “seven-day plan” must be met before nuclear negotiations begin. And it has offered no prospect of giving up the leverage over the Strait of Hormuz that the conflict prompted it to seize.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the US White House did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Tehran cannot trust Washington, Iranian officials say
Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days, albeit under Iranian control, provided that Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table, with messages being exchanged through mediators. Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Tuesday with a delegation of Pakistani officials to meet senior Iranian officials, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported.
Tehran’s view that Washington cannot be trusted to commit to diplomacy stems from the attacks on Iran that have derailed previous negotiations, one Iranian official said.
In June 2025, an Israeli attack, which the US later joined, ended prospects for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. And in February this year, the US and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.
Maintaining a state somewhere between war and peace through the US midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while reiterating its commitment to diplomacy.
Trump has said the US will not bomb Iran again before November 3. However, the officials said Tehran continues to expect that bombing will resume, sooner or later.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the clerical establishment clearly wanted to hurt Trump politically.
“But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change… and [is] following Israeli Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment,” he said.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu on Monday, three Israeli officials said, in an unannounced visit to Israel a week before Israel’s October 27 election. Netanyahu’s office confirmed the meeting on Tuesday.
Iran faces risks from prolonged stalemate
Iran’s strategy of keeping negotiations alive without rushing toward agreement comes at a cost.
Prolonged uncertainty is weighing on Iran’s already damaged economy and wearing down public patience. Regime forces killed thousands when they crushed mass anti-government protests at the beginning of the year.
Annual inflation hit 73.6 percent in September, according to the Statistical Center of Iran, and the rial has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July.
Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, and remained there as of October 5, according to energy intelligence platform Vortexa.
But the leadership’s distrust of Washington extends beyond the current conflict to existential concerns. Iran believes the US has repeatedly broken agreements even when Tehran honored its commitments, Leylaz said, leaving little confidence that any comprehensive deal would endure.
“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylaz said. “Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo.”
IRGC says two tankers hit mines, set ablaze south of Hormuz
Two tankers were set ablaze and brought to a halt south of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting Iranian mines, the Revolutionary Guards’ Navy said in a statement shared by state media on Tuesday, without saying when the tankers were hit.
The statement also said a US drone was downed by Iran on Monday night.
And the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Tuesday that it had received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces approximately 121 nautical miles east of Duqm in Oman.
Reports indicated the tanker was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region, it added.