Israel’s strike on Iran was ‘historic,’ but it’s not ‘the end’ of anything
The calibrated attacks aimed to expose the vulnerability of Iran’s air-defense systems, while building legitimacy, crucially with the US, for the inevitable rounds to come
David Horovitz is the founding editor of The Times of Israel. He is the author of "Still Life with Bombers" (2004) and "A Little Too Close to God" (2000), and co-author of "Shalom Friend: The Life and Legacy of Yitzhak Rabin" (1996). He previously edited The Jerusalem Post (2004-2011) and The Jerusalem Report (1998-2004).
Initial reports indicate that the Israeli Air Force struck at least 20 military targets across Iran in the course of its unprecedented four-hour attack on Iran in the early hours of Saturday morning — focusing on air-defense systems and missile production facilities.
The IDF stressed that the “precise” strikes, for which it took immediate responsibility, were launched in response to months of attacks by Iran and its proxies, the most relevant of which was Iran’s barrage of 200 ballistic missiles, which sent almost all of Israel dashing for safety on October 1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a further warning that a price would be paid when he blamed “the agents of Iran” for an attack a week ago in which a drone fired by Hezbollah exploded at his home in Caesarea, smashing a bedroom window.
A former head of the IDF’s Operations Division, Yisrael Ziv, described the Israeli attack as “historic” in scale and scope, as “amazingly well executed” 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) away from Israel, and as devastating for the Iranian regime in that it showed Israel to have freedom of operation for hours in the skies above Iran.
The attack, apparently involving more than 100 planes, was carefully calibrated. It harmed Iran’s missile industry — targeting factories, stores, launchers and research facilities — in a direct response to the October 1 barrage. And it hit and exposed the vulnerability of Iran’s air-defense systems, which the IAF neutralized at the start of the strikes and would likely be no match for more intensive and broader operations in the future.
But as far as is known, Israel did not target the regime’s nuclear or oil sites. There have been unconfirmed reports that an Israeli drone hit the Parchin base near Tehran, identified for years by Israel as an element in Iran’s nuclear weapons program. But other military activity goes on at Parchin, too, and a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies has claimed that what was targeted was a plant related to rocket manufacture.
Thus Israel appears to have heeded pressure from the Biden Administration to eschew nuclear and energy targets, and in turn to have retained firm American support in defending against any Iranian response.
Iran is, nonetheless, entirely capable of attempting to escalate the direct conflict with Israel still further. There is no suggestion that Saturday morning’s attack strategically harmed the regime’s offensive capabilities. But it did underline the weakness of Iran’s defenses if –as it surely would — a further Iranian attack prompted a more aggressive Israeli response next time around.
In attacking what it did, Israel was seeking both to deter Iran and to bolster its own legitimacy, with the US most of all, to indeed tackle broader targets in the future, including those the Biden Administration had urged it to avoid on Saturday.
These first hours after the strike have seen official Iran asserting a duty to defend itself but not issuing direct threats to strike at Israel, while also claiming that Israel is exaggerating the scale of the attack and that it caused only minor damage.
That response might be misinterpreted as indicating that the regime is prepared to swallow the humiliation and heed the Israeli warnings against escalation. Military sources quoted in Hebrew media on Saturday night said the IDF does not regard the incident as over, that Iran was still assessing the damage and its options, and that the IDF has “a bank of targets” ready to hit in a next round if necessary.
The ayatollahs have shown themselves to be patient and unrelenting in their strategic effort to destroy Israel. Their most potent proxy Hezbollah is much weakened, and Hamas, which began this war with its October 7 invasion, is no longer an organized military force. But even after the most significant Israeli strikes to date on the regime, its nuclear program remains untouched.
One way or another, the Islamic Republic can be relied upon to try, for as long as it takes, to harm Israel or indeed Diaspora targets in response to Saturday’s attack.
And so long as the regime remains in power, nothing will deter it from its goal of destroying Israel. Which is why US President Joe Biden’s stated hope that the Israeli strike “is the end” can have only very limited application.
