Muhammad Deif’s death would be a turning point in the war on Hamas
The elimination of Hamas’s most potent symbol would have a major practical impact on the terror-government’s fighting; it would also mean he could not oversee any bid to rearm
David Horovitz is the founding editor of The Times of Israel. He is the author of "Still Life with Bombers" (2004) and "A Little Too Close to God" (2000), and co-author of "Shalom Friend: The Life and Legacy of Yitzhak Rabin" (1996). He previously edited The Jerusalem Post (2004-2011) and The Jerusalem Report (1998-2004).
On the morning of October 7, soon after Hamas had launched its devastating invasion and begun its slaughter in southern Israel, Al Jazeera aired an audio recording of Muhammad Deif announcing that this was the beginning of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” against Israel: “I say to our pure mujahideen: This is the day that you make this criminal enemy understand that its time is up. [The Quran says:] ‘Kill them wherever you may find them.'”
Deif, who had been wanted by Israel for three decades, was the architect of the October 7 massacre alongside Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar, and the “chief of staff” of Hamas’s terrorist army. And, as he made clear in that recording, he was hoping the invasion would spark a murderous uprising inside Israel, notably in Jerusalem, and an ongoing wave of attacks across Israel’s borders, leading to Israel’s destruction.
As of this writing, it is not definitively known whether Deif, who reportedly survived seven Israeli attempts on his life, was killed in the eighth, in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night that it was not yet “absolutely certain” Deif is dead; Hamas is adamant that he isn’t.
The Israeli assessment is that if Deif was present in what the IDF said was a fenced-off Hamas compound with dozens of Hamas gunmen in the al-Mawasi area, characteristically exploiting the surrounding Israeli-designated humanitarian zone, then neither he nor his deputy, Rafa’a Salameh, would have survived.
The strike was facilitated through real-time Israeli intelligence gathering. Whether or not a body is found, sooner or later intelligence confirmation of his fate is likely.
Decades in the shadows
If Deif has been eliminated, this would constitute a hugely significant blow to Hamas — emblematically and practically.
Deif had long since achieved near-mythical status among his admirers and supporters, and was Israel’s prime Gaza target. He has symbolized Hamas and its genocidal anti-Israel ideology in Gaza — more so, and for far longer, than Sinwar.
While Sinwar was out and about in public, Deif knew that he dare not show his face. Indeed, that face has not been publicly photographed for years; the latest of the few pictures of him, released by the IDF in January from digital files recovered in Gaza, is undated.
Apart from the symbolism of Israel finally reaching a monstrous figure with the blood of hundreds of Israelis on his hands, Deif helmed Hamas’s armed forces, planned October 7 along with Sinwar, and oversaw the nine months of war that have unfolded since, having spent years preparing the infrastructure, weaponry and gunmen that he hoped would vanquish Israel’s forces inside Gaza.
Had he been eliminated earlier in the conflict, the organization, coordination and tactics of the Hamas army would have been substantially undermined. Today, Hamas is degraded, but it still has thousands of armed gunmen, much of its tunnel infrastructure, and rockets and other weaponry capable of causing tremendous harm. Deif apparently broke cover to try to coordinate the maximizing of the potency that remains. His death would constitute a major practical loss.
Perhaps most importantly, it would mean he would not be there to exploit any potential to rebuild Hamas after the war.
Sinwar won’t be deflected
His departure would not leave Sinwar completely isolated. Other senior Hamas figures — including Marwan Issa, the deputy head of the Hamas military wing, and operations chief Raed Saad — are gone. But the Hamas Gaza chief still has his brother Mohammed Sinwar and other commanders.
Talks on a potential hostages-for-ceasefire deal, which had seen a flurry of meetings in Qatar and Egypt in recent days, may well be complicated in the short term. But progress has always required a combination of military and diplomatic pressure. And the elimination of Deif, if the strike was successful, would ratchet up the military pressure on Hamas.
Nonetheless, as far as is known, it is Yahya Sinwar who has been making the key decisions on the negotiations. And Sinwar, like Deif, orchestrated October 7 in an effort to destroy Israel, made sure hostages were taken in support of that goal, has proved intransigent in months of talks, and is unlikely to be deflected even by the elimination of his most important would-be genocidal co-conspirator.
Deif’s death, however, would mark a turning point in Israel’s war to dismantle Hamas’s military and civilian governance capabilities and to bring home all the hostages. It might even come to constitute a breaking point. If, that is, the IDF finally got him.
The Times of Israel Community.