No platform? No party? No problem

Moshe Kahlon has no political party, no campaign platform, no slogan, no spokesman, and no clear political plan.

But none of that seems to matter.

According to the latest polls, before he’s even begun trying to woo the nation, Kahlon’s future party could grab 10 or more seats. This could make it the fourth-largest in the Knesset, and means the ex-Likud communications minister — a former political hawk who told supporters last week he would be willing to trade land for peace — is Israel’s possible post-election kingmaker.

“He has charisma of a very special kind; he’s a man who broadcasts believability,” said political expert Abraham Diskin, a retired professor at the Hebrew University and the director of the School of Management, Government and Law at the Shaarei Mishpat Academic Center. “He’s a nice person, and he looks like a nice person, and because of that he was so successful in Likud primaries more than once.”

Kahlon, 54, does indeed come across as likable. Unusually for an Israeli politician, he’s also got an endearing self-deprecating streak, which showed when he conceded he wouldn’t make a good defense minister at a conference in Tel Aviv last week. Really, ministers ought to have at least “some idea” of the jobs they’re supposed to be doing, said Kahlon, laughing. “People need to work in their areas of expertise, and my area is social issues,” he said, hinting toward a possible goal of finance minister, which he eyed back in 2012 before deciding not to run.

Kahlon is most famous for his work to open up the mobile telecom industry to competition when he was communications minister starting in 2009. The “cellular revolution,” as it’s popularly known, allowed companies like Rami Levy and Golan Telecom to enter the market, greatly reducing cellphone bills, and cast Kahlon as an economic hero for the average Israeli.

He was first elected to the Knesset in 2003, when he served as deputy speaker of the house. He became communications minister in 2009, and replaced Isaac Herzog (Labor) in January 2011 to head the Welfare and Social Services Ministry, where he continued his consumer crusade and fought the banks to lower their tariffs for customers.

In 2012, Kahlon surprised the political establishment when he announced he would not run in the national elections in 2013, neither as part of Likud nor with any other party, in order to take a break from politics.

But he hasn’t been far off the radar. In April of this year, Kahlon announced he would return to politics, though he did not specify how. As soon as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for elections last week, Kahlon’s name surfaced at the top of the list of real threats to the Likud party, and even to its leader.

‘When [voters] are disappointed, they’re looking for something new’

“What’s happening now is that there are both positive and negative factors that are helping [Kahlon],” explained Diskin. “The negative factor is the disappointment of all of the people who voted for centrist parties and Likud and Jewish Home… because when they’re disappointed, they’re looking for something new.” (Likud and Jewish Home are actually rising in the polls; centrist Yesh Atid and center-left Hatnua are not.)

The positive factor, Diskin continued, is Kahlon’s reputation. “Everyone knows him from the cellular revolution, which was not an easy task and he was very successful,” he said. “When there’s a lot of disappointment and then suddenly there’s someone with a good reputation, the result is that he has potential, and Kahlon has a lot of potential.”

Diskin said Kahlon could easily move beyond the 10 or so seats predicted in the current polls to become 2015’s Yesh Atid, the miracle party that, running for the first time, surged to 19 seats in the 2013 elections and wound up the largest party in the outgoing Knesset.

Kahlon, 54, is the son of Libyan immigrants, who grew up in a rough neighborhood of Hadera as one of seven children.

Another element of Kahlon’s appeal is his rags-to-riches story. Kahlon is the son of Libyan immigrants, and grew up in a rough neighborhood of Hadera as one of seven children. His brother Yaakov (Kobi) Kahlon is a city councilor in Jerusalem. His family struggled to get by, and Kahlon’s mother once told the Ynet news site she sometimes didn’t have enough eggs to make sandwiches for all the children so she would add flour and water to the eggs to make them go farther. Kahlon is the only Sephardi candidate currently jostling at the top of the political spectrum with Bennett, Herzog, Lapid, Liberman, Livni and Netanyahu.

Kahlon’s strong start, even without a political party or platform, is part of a political trend since the 2000s of centrist parties which rise and fall within the space of a single election cycle. Livni’s Hatnua party, which won six seats in the last election but will almost certainly not exist in the coming election, is an example of this.

“For many years, the Israeli public has been very volatile, and people are less connected to the big parties,” explained Michal Shamir, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University. “This is not just an Israeli phenomenon, it is now happening around the world.”

Shamir explained that people are becoming what she calls in her research “critical citizens,” voters who are more independent and analytical about their leaders. “They don’t go according to the party and whatever the party says,” she said.

Israel’s multi-party electoral system allows these new, independent parties to flourish quickly — albeit sometimes only briefly — which has both positive and negative repercussions. The positive aspect is that it gets people more involved and passionate about their government and democracy. However, a high number of medium-sized parties, rather than having two or three big strong parties, can make a government unstable and less effective, as the collapse of the current coalition after just 20 months underlines.

“What we know about [Kahlon] is that he was a Likudnik, he’s on the right, that he revolutionized the cellphone market — that’s his ticket,” Shamir said. The fact that Kahlon’s as-yet unnamed party has exploded out of the gate illustrates the public’s dissatisfaction with the current government, she added. “This issue of volatility — it’s part of the idea that people are not satisfied with our politicians. If we were satisfied with them, we wouldn’t need these heroes, and we wouldn’t need these new, small parties.”

Thus far, Kahlon’s success has been based solely on his own reputation. While rumors swirl about leading economists, ex-police chiefs and others who might be joining him, he hasn’t yet announced any other members of his party. His political positions are also somewhat unclear. At a pub on Friday, Kahlon said he was not opposed to territorial concessions if they were to bring about a peace accord with the Palestinians. He described himself as “center, a little right.”

“My worldview is that of the real Likud — that truly came and safeguarded the Land of Israel. When it needed to make peace with the greatest Arab nation (Egypt) it did so, and when it needed to compromise, it compromised,” he told a group of young people at the pub.

Kahlon’s statements appeared to signify a change in his position. In the past, he was on record as an opponent of Palestinian statehood and the dismantling of settlements.

Kahlon doesn’t yet have an official spokesperson, but an associate acting in that capacity declined multiple interview requests by The Times of Israel and other media outlets.

Whoever makes up Kahlon’s eventual party, the ex-Likudnik will play a “pivotal” role in the next government, Diskin predicted. If the election goes to the right with a subsequent Netanyahu-led coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, Yisrael Beytenu, and Haredi parties, Netanyahu will court Kahlon’s new party. “I am sure that Bibi will want as large a coalition as possible, and Kahlon is the most natural partner,” said Diskin.

“But if all those parties don’t get the majority [and the coalition is made up of center-left parties], then all the cards are in Kahlon’s hands.”

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.