Polls indicate Likud may be losing steam ahead of new year

A political poll published Wednesday shows the ruling Likud party remaining in power amid threats from a senior coalition partner that the government could fall over a tax dispute.

The poll, published by Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, has Likud garnering 20 seats if Knesset elections were held now — one seat more than it holds currently, though down from the 26 a survey by the Israeli Maagar Mochot research institute showed it gaining September 14.

Yedioth released the poll amid mounting concern that a tiff between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yair Lapid over the budget could lead to Lapid’s Yesh Atid party bolting the governing coalition and early elections.

According to the latest survey, Yesh Atid would lose eight seats compared to its current showing of 19, dropping it from the second largest party in the Knesset to tie for fourth-largest with Yisrael Beytenu (11). Nationalist faction Jewish Home would jump to 16 seats according to the poll, up from the 12 it holds now, and Labor would fall by one seat to 14.

Survey results released in Israel daily Globes by pollster Rafi Smith Wednesday had Likud winning 25 seats if elections were held today. While that represented a stronger showing than the Yedioth prediction, it was still three seats less than the 28 seats predicted in a July poll by Smith.

The Smith poll also had Yesh Atid gaining two seats, up to 11, compared to the July survey, also published in Globes.

Speaking to Yedioth, Lapid, who supports heavier borrowing to cover a budget deficit, warned that the government would fall if taxes were raised instead.

“It’s impossible to raise taxes — because if they are raised, then we will simply leave and the government will fall,” the freshman lawmaker said, describing the issue as a red line.

Lapid has made similar threats for the past several weeks as he and Netanyahu have tussled over the budget. On Sunday, reports indicated the two had neared a deal, though differences remain over defense spending.

Lapid also dismissed the predictions of heavy losses for Yesh Atid, noting that pre-election polling before the 2013 elections showed his party of political newcomers only garnering four seats.

“Regarding the polls, somebody who was told three weeks before the elections that he would get four mandates and ended up with 19, doesn’t take the polls too seriously,” he said. “If we do these things right, wholeheartedly and with pure intentions, I am sure it will be fine.”

Aside from the difference in seats for Likud, the Yedioth survey had Yisrael Beytenu winning three seats fewer than the Maagar Mochot poll and Labor gaining one more, which resulted in them switching places at the three and four spots.

Yedioth also asked Israelis about their economic situation. Fifty-seven percent said it was good enough, another 14% said it was very good and 3% said it was excellent. Meanwhile, 18% said it was not good enough, 4% that it was not very good at all and another 4% that it was bad.

Asked whether their economic situation had changed over the past year, 56% said it had not, and 27% said it had gotten worse. Another 14% said it changed for the better.