Poll: Netanyahu’s Likud drops slightly with Hezbollah truce; Bennett would win if he ran
Maariv survey finds Likud would win 24 seats, with coalition parties getting 51, opposition 59; but if former prime minister were to run, poll says he could lead majority bloc
The standing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party dropped slightly in the wake of the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to a newspaper poll published on Thursday.
According to the Maariv poll, if elections were held today, Likud would receive 24 Knesset seats, down from 25 in the previous poll two weeks ago, while the Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would just clear the electoral threshold and win four seats, up from zero.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit would win seven seats, down from eight two weeks ago.
Ultra-Orthodox party Shas sat firm at nine seats, while the other main Haredi party, United Torah Judaism, would win seven seats, down from eight in the last poll, according to Maariv.
Despite Likud’s slight drop, the parties currently making up the coalition would garner 51 mandates out of the Knesset’s 120, up from 48 two weeks prior due to the inclusion of Religious Zionism.
Among opposition parties, Benny Gantz’s National Unity would receive 19 seats and Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid would win 15, both unchanged from the previous poll. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party would win 14 seats, also unchanged.
Meanwhile, Yair Golan’s Democrats — a Labor-Meretz union — would win 11 mandates, down from 12.
Without the inclusion of Arab-majority parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am — which would receive 5 seats each — the opposition parties would receive 59 mandates, falling short of the 61-mandate majority.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope would fall below the electoral threshold, as would leftist Arab party Balad, according to the poll.
The poll did find, however, that should former prime minister Naftali Bennett return to politics, a theoretical party led by him would receive 25 mandates, making it the largest party in government, with Likud trailing behind at 21 seats.
In this scenario, the coalition parties would win 44 mandates, and the opposition, including Bennett’s party, would win a majority at 66 seats. Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would still win five mandates each.
A Channel 12 poll earlier this week showed similar results if Bennett were to run, showing his theoretical party would win 23 seats, causing Likud to drop two seats, down to 23 as well.
That poll had Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party fall below the threshold for a mandate, meaning he would not sit in the Knesset.
The Channel 12 poll, conducted just before the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement went into effect early Wednesday, found that 37 percent of respondents supported the terms, 32% said that they opposed them and 31% said they didn’t know.
Among Netanyahu supporters, just 20% said they supported the ceasefire deal, while 45% said they opposed it and 35% said they didn’t know.
Among those who voted for opposition parties, 50% said they supported the ceasefire deal framework, while 22% said they were opposed to it and 28% said they didn’t know.
The security cabinet approved the ceasefire deal by 10 ministers to one on Tuesday night, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir as the sole opponent.
The ceasefire agreement, announced late Tuesday, halted 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which began when the Iran-backed terror group began firing into Israel on October 8, 2023, saying it was acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The relentless attacks forced the displacement of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel.
