Poll suggests growing support for Eisenkot to replace Gantz as National Unity leader

An Israeli television survey aired Tuesday pointed to mounting support for MK Gadi Eisenkot to replace Benny Gantz as the head of the National Unity party.

Channel 12 news polled two scenarios in the likely case that former prime minister Naftali Bennett returns to politics and starts a new party. With Eisenkot as the head of National Unity, the centrist faction would receive 12 seats, while when Gantz is at the helm, it only receives eight seats, according to the network.

Gantz has come under fire for regularly avoiding to take clear stances on contentious issues to avoid upsetting either side of the political spectrum, while Eisenkot has taken more clear positions, particularly in favor of securing the release of hostages and against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war.

The poll’s respondents were also asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, with a Gantz-led National Unity finishing as the second largest party if Bennett does not run. The survey did not ask how respondents would vote if National Unity were headed by Eisenkot and Bennett remained on the sidelines.

The results were as follows:

Likud: 25 seats
National Unity: 17 seats
The Democrats: 14 seats
Yesh Atid: 13 seats
Yisrael Beytenu: 12 seats
Shas: 9 seats
United Torah Judaism: 8 seats
Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats
Religious Zionism: 5 seats
Hadash-Ta’al: 5 seats
Ra’am: 5 seats
Balad: 0 seats
New Hope: 0 seats

Such an outcome would leave the current coalition with just 54 seats. The opposition without the majority Arab Hadash-Ta’al, which is unaligned with either bloc, would have 61 seats — just enough to form a coalition in the 120-seat Knesset, but a slight drop from previous polls.

Respondents were then asked who they would vote for in the likely scenario that Bennett returns to politics with a new party, while Gantz heads National Unity.

Likud: 23 seats
Naftali Bennett’s party: 23 seats
The Democrats: 12 seats
Yesh Atid: 9 seats
Shas: 9 seats
United Torah Judaism: 8 seats
National Unity: 8 seats
Yisrael Beytenu: 7 seats
Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats
Hadash-Ta’al: 5 seats
Ra’am: 5 seats
Religious Zionism: 4 seats
Balad: 0 seats
New Hope: 0 seats

The current coalition would have just 51 seats in this scenario. The opposition with Bennett’s party and without Hadash-Ta’al would have 64 seats. But several of those opposition lawmakers have pledged not to sit in a government that is reliant on the Islamist Ra’am party, which would mean that the bloc would not have enough seats to form a coalition and that Israel could return to another period of political paralysis.

However, if Eisenkot heads National Unity, opposition parties minus Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would together have enough for a ruling majority with 62 seats.

Asked who is more fit to serve as prime minister in head-to-head matchups, respondents said the following:

Netanyahu: 39%
Lapid: 25%

Netanyahu: 37%
Gantz: 27%

Netanyahu: 36%
Bennett: 37%

Netanyahu: 36%
Eisenkot: 31%

As for when elections should be held, 55 percent of the public said as soon as possible, 37% said in late 2026, as scheduled, and 8% said they were not sure.

The survey by Mano Geva’s Midgam polling company included 501 Israelis above the age of 18, with a 4.4% margin of error.

Over 2/3s say freeing hostage is most important war aim

The poll also included questions about the ongoing hostage release and ceasefire deal, with a majority in support of continuing with the agreement’s second phase, which would see the release of all remaining living hostages in exchange for a permanent end to the war.

Sixty-one percent of respondents supported continuing with the hostage deal’s second phase, while 26% opposed phase two and instead prefer returning to war. Thirteen percent said they were unsure.

The percentage in favor of continuing to phase two was identical to the figure in a poll published by the Kan public broadcaster over the weekend, though in that survey 18% said Israel should resume the war and the remaining 21% were unsure.

In line with the first question, 68% of the Channel 12 respondents said the most important war goal is to release the hostages, compared to 24% who said it is to defeat Hamas. Eight percent said they were not sure.

Support for Trump’s plan to take over Gaza and relocate all of its Palestinians remains popular among Israelis, with 68% in favor, compared to 20% who oppose the idea and 12% who are unsure.

Asked about the performance of Israel’s top political and security leaders throughout the war triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror atrocities, none of the individuals polled received high grades.

Sixty-one percent said Netanyahu’s performance has been poor, compared to 33% who said it has been good.

Forty-seven percent said former defense minister Yoav Gallant’s performance was poor, compared to 43% who said it was good.

Fifty-seven percent said Defense Minister Israel Katz’s performance has been poor, compared to 30% who said it has been good.

Forty-five percent said IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi’s performance has been poor, compared to 43% who said it has been good.

Forty-six percent said Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar’s performance has been poor, compared to 30% who said it has been good.

Thirty-three percent said Mossad Chief David Barnea’s performance has been poor, compared to 46% who said it has been good. Barnea was the only figure polled whose favorability rating was above water.

Asked who was principally responsible for the October 7 failure, 23% said Netanyahu, 12% said the Shin Bet and 8% said IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. Forty-nine percent said all of them are equally responsible and eight percent said they did not know.

Asked what is the appropriate investigative body to probe the failure, 63% said a state commission of inquiry, 19% said a lower-level government inquiry, which has been backed by Netanyahu’s supporters, five percent said there is no need for an inquiry and 13% said they were unsure.