Rebels in Syria take advantage of Israel’s successes against a weakened Iran axis
Lightning advance on Aleppo by anti-Assad jihadist force could be start of wider uprising against Tehran and its proxies
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
Syrian rebels, led by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, surprised the Bashar Assad regime as well as observers when they launched an offensive last week that saw them capture the city of Aleppo — second only to the capital Damascus in population — within 72 hours, after years of strategic stalemate.
Perhaps they shouldn’t have been so shocked.
There has been a recent uptick in confrontations between Syrian forces and opposition groups in the country’s northwest, which left civilians dead and were seen by rebels as a violation of the 2019 ceasefire agreement between Russia, which backs the Assad regime, and Turkey, which backs some of the rebel groups in the north.
HTS had been building up its military capabilities for years in preparation for such an offensive.
“The group operates a professionally staffed military academy run by defectors from the Syrian military, and it has restructured its armed wing into a conventional armed force structure,” wrote Charles Lister, Syria expert at the Middle East Institute. “In recent years, it has also developed ‘special forces’ units dedicated to covert operations, lightning raids behind enemy lines, and nighttime operations.”
But the primary reason for the success of the rebel offensive and the collapse of the regime forces is the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 8, 2023.
“The timing is not coincidental,” Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Times of Israel.
“They identify well the critical, even historical, weakness that the ‘Resistance Axis,’ primarily Hezbollah and Iran, find themselves in,” she continued.
Some Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shiite militia fighters were moved from Syria to contend with the Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon in October. Thousands more were killed and wounded by Israeli air raids, ground forces, and special operations like the stunning attacks in September in which thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded on their owners.
Iran itself is in a defensive crouch, having lost its two most effective deterrent threats against Israel in Hamas and Hezbollah, and after suffering significant damage in the October 26 Israeli air raid on Iran, itself a response to the regime’s second ballistic missile attack on the Jewish state on October 1.
To make matters worse for Assad’s government, while Hezbollah is diminished, so is Russia. Its focus has been on the long Ukraine fight for almost 3 years, with fewer troops and assets in Syria.
What’s more, with the Donald Trump administration set to take office in a matter of weeks, Iran will likely face increased sanctions and stepped-up pressure on its battered economy.
Speaking to Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday, a rebel commander made no effort to hide the connection between the offensive and Israel’s military success.
“We looked at the [ceasefire] agreement with Hezbollah and understood that this is the time to liberate our lands,” said the officer. “This operation was critical. We will not let Hezbollah fight in our areas and we will not let the Iranians take root there.”
The rebel commander added that the goal is to topple the Assad regime and set up a government that has good relations with all its neighbors, including Israel.
Still, it’s unlikely that this offensive will be enough in and of itself to bring Assad down. HTS will need other groups to attack as well, especially from southern Syria. And they will have to learn to cooperate, something they were unable to do at the height of the civil war almost a decade ago.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that recent success will continue, especially if Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah wake up to the threat and find a way to throw real resources at the attack.
“If so, we could see this end very quickly,” said Valensi.
Seeing the Assad regime fade into history would be a massive and unexpected boon for Israel, the next pillar holding up the Iranian facade across the region to crumble. It would come as Israel shifts its focus in the north to preventing Hezbollah from replenishing its supply of arms, the bulk of which comes through Syria to Lebanon.
Speaking to The Times of Israel, an Israel official wouldn’t say whether Israel saw the rebel success as a positive development, noting only that Israel is “paying close attention all the time to what is happening in Syria, and is ready for any scenario.”
And there are potential risks, should the rebels succeed in bringing Assad down.
“The fall of the regime could create chaos, and it’s not clear who would rule there,” said Valensi. “There won’t be an address that Israel likes, whom you can hold a conversation with through military force or other methods.”
Israel, it is assessed, would likely only get involved directly if it sees Syrian chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands, or if the Golan Heights were threatened.
“From Israel’s perspective, the most urgent thing is to ensure that Tehran does not exploit the renewal of the civil war for its own needs, to smuggle weapons, to consolidate forces and capabilities,” said Meir Ben-Shabbat, Netanyahu’s former national security adviser.
“Beyond that, Israel must ensure that the renewal of fighting in the southern Syrian Golan Heights does not spill over into our territory,” he continued, adding that Israel’s core interest is that Hezbollah, the Shiite militias, and Iranian elements be eliminated from the civil war in Syria.
“Israel needs to take advantage of the new reality in Syria to act more decisively and firmly than before to push Iran and its proxies out of this country,” said Ben Shabbat.
Regardless of what happens next — whether Russia and Iran figure out a way to stem the rebel advance, or if HTS sparks a broad offensive against the regime — the timing and success of the attack shows how badly eroded the Iranian position has become. For years, it was the most aggressive force in the region, and attacks from its proxies spooked pro-Western Gulf states into opening diplomatic dialogue with Tehran.
With its massive October 7 attack, Hamas thought it could inspire a flood of violence against Israel from the Iranian axis. Instead, Israel has moved to the strategic offensive against Iran, and it could be that Hamas inadvertently unleashed a flood against its patrons in Tehran.
