Syria rebels say they’re encircling Damascus; West thinks Assad regime may fall in days
Rebel offensive makes big gains, pushing on regime forces from north, south and east; HTS-led troops enter Homs on road to capital, seize areas near Israel border
Syrian rebel forces on Saturday made major advances in their offensive against Syrian government forces, with reports saying rebels were closing in on the capital Damascus from the north, east, and south, as regime troops reportedly pulled back from bases around the country to fortify positions around the capital city.
CNN reported Saturday that the US was increasingly believing that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime could collapse within days. Reuters similarly cited American and other Western officials saying the government could fall within the next week. Israel is reportedly preparing for the possibility that the regime may collapse.
The rebels also said Saturday that they had seized the regions of Quneitra and Daraa near the border with Israel, as the Israel Defense Forces vowed a strong response in the event that they “turn in our direction.”
Meanwhile, rebel Druze militias overran most of the army bases in Syria’s southern province of Suweida along the border with Jordan.
Rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani, with the alliance led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that launched the offensive in the country’s northwest, said on Saturday that “our forces have begun the final phase of encircling the capital, Damascus.”
Reports said that Syria’s military withdrew from bases in the south and east, including the major T-4 airbase near the ancient city of Palmyra.
T-4, also known as Tiyas, is believed to be one of two major airports — the other being Damascus International Airport — where Iranian cargo airlines carrying weapons set for Hezbollah in Lebanon often land.
In recent years, Israel has attacked the T-4 airbase on multiple occasions, and defense officials have claimed in the past that the base is used by Iranian forces as part of the Islamic Republic’s efforts to entrench militarily in Syria, something Israel has vowed to prevent.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor with a history of unreliability, claimed that the army withdrew from positions in the Damascus countryside roughly 10 kilometers (six miles) from the capital, though the assertion was denied by the Syrian defense ministry, which said: “There is no truth to news claiming our armed forces, present in all areas of the Damascus countryside, have withdrawn.”
Amid swirling reports that Assad had left Damascus, Assad’s office denied them and claimed that he is continuing to perform his duties from the capital.
The office condemned “rumors and false news about President Bashar al-Assad leaving Damascus,” adding that Assad “is following up on his work and national and constitutional duties from the capital.”
However, CNN cited a source who said the president was nowhere to be found in Damascus and may possibly have fled.
Earlier on Saturday, pro-rebel protesters brought down the statue of Hafez al-Assad, the late father of the Syrian president, in a main square in the Damascus suburb of Jermana, nearly 10 kilometers from the center of the city.
A rebel commander told Reuters they have advanced to within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Damascus, and sources said that rebel forces entered the key city of Homs from the north and east, just one day after they took over the nearby city of Hama.
Homs is only around 15 miles from the border with Lebanon, and a rebel capture of the city would effectively cut off the key government-held port cities of Latakia and Tartus, where major military bases, as well as Iranian and Russian forces, are located.
Israel’s military announced on Saturday that it was sending reinforcements to further bolster its positions on the Golan’s border with Syria in response to the rebel advances, after sending troops to the area on Friday. The IDF said it “will continue to act to protect the State of Israel and its citizens.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday: “There is now a new reality in Syria, politically and diplomatically. And Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, sectarian and religious elements.”
“The people of Syria are the ones who will decide the future of their own country,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that he and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran had agreed in a meeting in Doha that there had to be an immediate end to “hostilities” in Syria.
The three countries have been involved since 2017 in the so-called Astana format talks seeking a political settlement in Syria.
Lavrov added that Moscow wanted to see dialogue between the Syrian government and what he called the “legitimate opposition” in Syria, and called Islamist insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has led much of the rebel advances, terrorists regardless of whether they said they had changed their views.
It was “inadmissible to allow terrorist groups” to take control of Syrian lands, said Lavrov.
Asked how the situation in Syria would develop and what would happen to Russian military bases there, Lavrov said he was “not in the business of guessing.”
On Friday, Iran started evacuating military commanders and other officials from Syria, The New York Times reported, in a sign of Tehran’s wavering confidence in Assad’s regime amid the rebels’ lightning advance.
Starting Friday morning, Iran has been transferring civilians, military personnel, and some diplomats and their families to Iraq, Lebanon and the Syrian government’s stronghold in the country’s western coastal region, according to regional and Iranian officials cited by The Times.
Some officials were said to depart on flights to Tehran, while others left by land to Lebanon, Iraq and the Syrian port city of Latakia.
Russia and the United States also called on their citizens to leave Syria immediately.
The Times quoted Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst, as saying: “Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation, and this option is off the table.”
“We cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” he said.
Together with Russia and Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic has been a key supporter of Assad during the 13-year-long civil war.
Syria’s conflict killed more than 305,000 people between 2011 and 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Office said in 2022.
At least 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed since the rebels’ offensive began last week, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The United Nations said the violence has displaced 280,000 people.
After years locked behind frozen frontlines, the rebels have burst forth to mount the swiftest battlefield advance by either side since a rebellion against Assad descended into civil war 13 years ago.
The most powerful rebel faction is the Sunni Islamist HTS, the former al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has pledged to protect Syria’s religious minorities and has called on them to abandon Assad, but many remain fearful of the insurgents.
The group has sought to moderate its image in recent years, but experts say it faces a challenge convincing Western governments it has fully renounced hardline jihadism.
