The force that isn’t keeping the peace in Lebanon: 4 scenarios for the future of UNIFIL

In recent days, at least five UNIFIL peacekeepers have been lightly wounded as Israel expands its fight against the Hezbollah terror group in southern Lebanon.

The IDF took responsibility for two separate incidents on Thursday and Friday in which four UN soldiers from Indonesia and Sri Lanka were wounded, and said that in both cases it was aiming at Hezbollah positions nearby and that it warned UNIFIL it was about to shoot. As for the fifth soldier, who was wounded on Friday night, the UN admitted it did not know the origin of the gunfire.

Still, UNIFIL — the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon — accused the Israeli military of firing “deliberately” on its positions, and the 40 countries that contribute troops to it unanimously condemned the incidents and highlighted the mission’s aim to bring “lasting peace in South Lebanon.”

In response to the international outcry, Israel has made the case that the UNIFIL force hinders its efforts to eradicate Hezbollah from the border and called for the peacekeepers’ withdrawal from combat areas.

On Sunday night, IDF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee said around 25 rockets and missiles were fired at Israeli towns and forces by Hezbollah from next to UNIFIL posts over the past month. One of the attacks launched from next to a UNIFIL position killed two IDF soldiers, said Adraee.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement addressed to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, also on Sunday that UNIFIL soldiers were “hostages” of Hezbollah and being used as “human shields.”

“This endangers both them and the lives of our soldiers,” the prime minister said, noting that Israel has requested their withdrawal multiple times in the past and was always met with refusal.

The terror group’s exploitation of the peacekeeping mission as cover is nothing new, according to some Israeli pundits. In the first weeks of the war, the Alma Research Center, a privately funded nonprofit that monitors security developments on Israel’s northern border, published a map showing five UNIFIL bases that had been used by Hezbollah as cover for rocket launches on Israel.

Recently, Alma followed up with a study of four potential scenarios outlining the future of the “failed” UN peacekeeping force.

Since the start of the war, 22 rockets have been fired at Israel from within the vicinity of 5 UNIFIL peacekeeper bases in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, being responsible for all projectiles fired at Israel, deliberately uses the UN peacekeepers as human shields and is responsible… pic.twitter.com/dOeTT6qTFA

— Israel-Alma (@Israel_Alma_org) December 15, 2023

Tal Beeri, Alma’s director of research, said that UNIFIL is “unwilling and unable to confront Hezbollah.” Beeri served for decades in IDF intelligence units.

“When Hezbollah places a rocket launcher next to one of UNIFIL’s positions, 99.9% of the time UNIFIL will not do anything about it. They are afraid,” said Beeri.

“If Hezbollah tells UNIFIL forces not to get into a certain area, they won’t. If they do it anyway without prior coordination, they can get physically hurt or abducted,” said Beeri. “It has happened in the past, before this war.”

Among past incidents, in May 2013, a UNIFIL base was overrun, its ammunition stolen, and three soldiers were briefly detained. In December 2022, a UNIFIL vehicle came under gunfire and an Irish peacekeeper inside it was killed. A Hezbollah official said the terror group was not involved in the shooting but noted that the vehicle had taken an “unusual route.”

UNIFIL’s failure to fulfill its core mission

UNIFIL was first deployed in 1978 after the IDF invasion of southern Lebanon. The operation came in response to the “coastal road massacre,” a terror attack in which 35 Israeli civilians were killed on a bus near Tel Aviv by Palestinians who infiltrated from Lebanon into Israel.

The Lebanese government said it had no connection to the Palestinian terrorist commandos and requested UN intervention to ensure the withdrawal of IDF troops from its territory. The UN decided to send a peacekeeping mission to restore stability to the area.

During the years of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, from 1982 until 2000, UNIFIL remained behind Israeli lines and provided humanitarian assistance to the local population, but was unable to fulfill its mandate and prevent clashes between the IDF and its Lebanese allies against “resistance” groups such as Hezbollah.

In 2006, after the end of the Second Lebanon War, UNIFIL’s mandate was confirmed and expanded by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for an immediate cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel and for the creation of a buffer zone in Lebanon south of the Litani River, which was supposed to remain free of arms and militias other than those of UNIFIL and the Lebanese government.

UNIFIL’s mission was extended annually over the following years. The last time its mandate was renewed was on August 28 by the UN Security Council.

However, the UN peacekeeping force has been unable to fulfill its mission, despite its massive contingent of 9,500 troops of some 50 nationalities.

Resolution 1701 has largely gone unimplemented as Hezbollah progressively entrenched itself in the border area, storing weapons there, firing countless rockets into Israel, and allegedly positioning its forces for a mass invasion of Israel last year.

While UNIFIL has made an important contribution to the residents of southern Lebanon, running projects to provide electricity, healthcare through 15 UNIFIL-run hospitals, and education, and by supporting the local economy through the presence of its thousands of soldiers, it has not fulfilled its core mission — namely, to ensure that the area of southern Lebanon between the border with Israel (the so-called Blue Line) and the Litani River remains demilitarized.

Beeri cited two recent examples of the incapacity or the unwillingness of the UN mission to deal with the terror group that it is supposed to hold at bay.

In December 2018, the IDF uncovered six tunnels dug by Hezbollah that crossed from Lebanon into Israel. The Israeli army said it provided a map of the tunnels to UNIFIL’s commander at the time, Maj. Gen. Stefano Del Col, and called on the UN peacekeeping force to destroy the passages on the Lebanese side of the border, but UNIFIL never complied, Beeri said.

On September 1, 2019, Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles at a military jeep and an IDF base in Avivim, in northern Israel, causing no injuries. Despite Israeli requests, UNIFIL forces have yet to visit the site from where those rockets were launched, Beeri said.

UNIFIL’s spokesperson did not respond to repeated requests for comment by The Times of Israel, about either these two claims or the allegation made by Netanyahu that it serves as Hezbollah’s “human shield.”

Four scenarios for the future of UNIFIL

In early September, before the ongoing escalation in Lebanon, the Alma Research Center published a report outlining four scenarios for the future of UNIFIL.

Maintaining the status quo is undesirable for Israel, as the IDF runs the risk of inadvertently hitting UNIFIL positions that Hezbollah allegedly uses for cover.

Completely disbanding UNIFIL would also not be a sensible option. The peacekeeping force serves as a “mediation mechanism to resolve tactical conflicts on the ground,” the report indicated.

Expanding and strengthening UNIFIL to perform its mandate and actually confront Hezbollah on the ground does not seem like a realistic scenario at the moment, the report suggested, as Hezbollah would begin targeting UN troops and there would be casualties, and, as a consequence, few countries would agree to maintain their forces in Lebanon under pressure from their citizens.

Reducing the UNIFIL mandate and downsizing its deployment would appear to be the best option, as it would allow the force to preserve its liaison role and its humanitarian projects, and strengthen its reporting function, the report concluded.

However, in light of the ongoing ground offensive by the IDF in south Lebanon, uncertainty still prevails as to what force could guarantee security and confront the threat of Hezbollah fighter cells once the IDF withdraws its troops.

Lazar Berman and Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.