Hypothetical Lapid-Kahlon party dominates in new poll
Survey indicates that a joint bid by Yesh Atid and Kulanu would receive 24 seats, ahead of both Likud and Labor
A pre-election survey published Wednesday by Haaretz predicted that a centrist list merging Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party and Moshe Kahlon’s new Kulanu party would garner 24 seats in the Knesset, ahead of Likud, with 21, and Labor, with 20.
Haaretz itself reported Tuesday that Kahlon had refused an offer by Lapid to merge between their parties in a joint ticket ahead of the March 17 general election.
The poll, conducted by the Dialogue Institute under the supervision of Dr. Kamil Fuchs, further found that were Kulanu and Yesh Atid to merge, the Jewish Home party would receive 16 seats, United Torah Judaism 9, Yisrael Beytenu 8, Meretz 6, Ra’am-Ta’al 5, and Hadash 5. Eli Yishai’s new Ha’am Itanu party as well as his former Shas party would both place beneath the 3.25% threshold and fail to enter the Knesset.
It bears mention that the poll’s figures do not add up to the expected 120 seats, as they do not factor in the redistribution of votes for parties that are not expected to reach the four-seat electoral threshold.
If, as currently seems likely, Yesh Atid and Kulanu do not merge, the parties would receive 11 and 12 seats, respectively, the poll found. The Likud and Labor in such a case would win 21 seats apiece, Jewish Home 16, Yisrael Beytenu 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Meretz 6, Ra’am-Ta’al 5, Hadash 5, and Shas 4. Ha’am Itanu would not reach the electoral threshold.
The poll was conducted among 505 Israelis, with a 4.2% margin of error.
Lapid reportedly believes merging the two parties would boost the prospects for both in the coming election, and even give them a good shot at forming the next coalition government. Wednesday’s Haaretz poll indicates Lapid may be correct in his assertions; however, Kahlon has so far been less than willing.
Lapid’s party has also been reportedly courting Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, once a strong ally of the Likud. The latter two parties ran on a joint ticket in the 2013 elections.
Last week, Yesh Atid MK Meir Cohen revealed that Lapid and Liberman had held talks to discuss the possibility of a merger deal between their parties, adding that Kahlon was also considering joining forces with them.
However, Yisrael Beytenu and Kulanu later each issued separate denials of the reports, insisting that there were no merger negotiations between the parties.
Even if the parties do not form a single Knesset slate, they could conceivably cooperate in other ways, including coordinating their stances on whom to recommend for the premiership following the elections, and agreeing to not attack one anothe reach other during the campaign.