Top US official warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ to war in Lebanon – reports

Unnamed official in Washington quoted as saying there’s ‘no magic solution’ to threat from Hezbollah; diplomatic agreement best way to prevent thousands of deaths, material damage

A man works next to a home destroyed by rockets fired by Hezbollah in Katzrin on the Golan Heights, August 21, 2024.(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
A man works next to a home destroyed by rockets fired by Hezbollah in Katzrin on the Golan Heights, August 21, 2024.(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

A full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon could have “catastrophic and unforeseen consequences,” a senior US official said at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit in Washington, DC, on Monday.

“There is an idea of ​​’Let’s go to war and then we will destroy all the missiles Hezbollah has and everything will be fine.’ It’s not that simple. There is no magic solution. The other side cannot be annihilated. At the end of the war, Israel may pay a heavy price and not achieve its goals,” the official was quoted by Israeli journalist Barak Ravid as saying, while recommending a diplomatic rather than military solution to calm the border tensions.

“There is no war in lab conditions. It’s not a game. I don’t doubt the capabilities of the IDF, but we have to think about the fact that there will be serious consequences for both sides,” the US official added, speaking on the second day of the two-day Washington conference chaired by two former senior US administration officials, Dennis Ross and Elliot Abrams, and two former American ambassadors to Israel, Tom Nides and David Friedman.

The official argued that if a war were to break out, the international community would intervene to reach a diplomatic solution that would be similar to what can be clinched now.

The comments came amid near-daily attacks from Hezbollah-led forces on Israeli communities and military posts along the border since October 8, with the terror group saying it is doing so to support Gaza during the war there against its ruler, Hamas, that started October 7 with the latter terror group’s devastating onslaught in southern Israel.

On Monday, Hezbollah launched explosive-laden drones and dozens of rockets at northern Israel, while Israel Defense Forces returned fire on terror targets in southern Lebanon. One of the Hezbollah drones impacted a high-rise residential building in the coastal city of Nahariya, causing damage but no injuries.

The scene where a drone fired from Lebanon hit a residential building, in the northern city of Nahariya, September 9, 2024. (Flash90)

In quotes from the conference published by Hebrew media sites, the US official warned that thousands, or even tens of thousands, of people could be killed if the tensions escalated into an all-out war, along with heavy damage to both Israeli and Lebanese infrastructure.

Speaking Sunday at the same conference, former war cabinet minister Benny Gantz said Israel should shift its focus away from Gaza toward the Lebanese border, declaring that “we are late on this,” while also warning that a war with the Iran-backed terror group is imminent if Israel does not soon strike a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas.

While Gantz and other Israeli officials say that a major military operation against Hezbollah is the only way to allow the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes on the northern border since October to return safely, the US official warned that many civilians could be killed in the fighting and would not have homes to return to, according to Ravid.

However, according to quotes published by the Israel Hayom daily, the official also supported Israel’s position that it can no longer tolerate Hezbollah’s presence along its border following the atrocities perpetrated by Hamas on October 7.

National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz (left) speaks at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit in Washington, DC, September 8, 2024. (Itzik Balnitzki / Courtesy)

Returning to the “status quo of October 6” would not be to restore security to residents of northern Israel, the official was quoted as saying, as Hezbollah would likely return to the Israel-Lebanon border, despite being barred by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 from maintaining a military presence south of the Litani River.

The Iran-backed terror group has blatantly violated that resolution and regularly launches attacks on Israel from near the border.

Tensions have been particularly high in recent weeks, with Hezbollah vowing retaliation for Israel’s assassination of its top military commander in Beirut in July. Israel said it foiled part of the terror group’s response to the killing in mid-August, when IDF fighter jets struck thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels in southern Lebanon, including some believed to be aimed at Mossad headquarters.

Eleven months of cross-border skirmishes have so far resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 20 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

Hezbollah has named 433 members who have been killed by Israel during the fighting, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 78 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.

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