Presidential inaugurationWho has more sway over Netanyahu? Trump or Smotrich?

Trump looks to ride on success of hostage deal as he readies to take oath of office

After his intervention helped finalize an agreement that had been elusive for months, US president-elect faces arguably bigger challenge of maintaining ceasefire past first phase

Jacob Magid

Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief

US President-elect Donald Trump reacts during a MAGA victory rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, on January 19, 2025, one day ahead of his inauguration ceremony. (Jim WATSON / AFP)
US President-elect Donald Trump reacts during a MAGA victory rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, on January 19, 2025, one day ahead of his inauguration ceremony. (Jim WATSON / AFP)

Donald Trump appears set to ride on the success of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that he helped finalize before even entering office, as he is sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on Monday.

Trump threatened “all hell to pay” in the Middle East if the hostages weren’t returned by his January 20 inauguration. While he publicly directed the threat at Hamas, his Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly made clear during his January 11 meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that it was addressed to him as well, leaning on the premier to make the compromises necessary to secure an agreement.

Arab officials familiar with the negotiations believe that the pressure was critical in securing a breakthrough that led to the agreement, according to a Times of Israel report that was subsequently shared by Trump himself.

But as difficult as it was to bring the agreement over the finish line — more than seven months after it was first unveiled by US President Joe Biden — sustaining the deal past the first phase may prove an even more challenging task, given the pressure Netanyahu is facing to resume the war to ensure that Hamas cannot reassert control of Gaza.

A poll aired Friday on the Kan public broadcaster showed that 65 percent of the public, and even a plurality of coalition voters, back the deal’s first phase, which began on Sunday and will see the release of 33 hostages over a span of six weeks. Fifty-five percent of voters back sticking with the deal through all three of its phases, which would require Israel to agree to a permanent ceasefire at the end of the second phase. However, a plurality of coalition voters — 46% — told Kan that Israel should resume fighting after the first phase.

Netanyahu has insisted on continuing the war until Israel achieves its aim of dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. If Jerusalem somehow manages to coax Hamas into completely ceding control of Gaza in the negotiations regarding the deal’s second phase, which are slated to commence on February 3, Netanyahu has indicated he’d be prepared to end the war. But in the likely scenario where Hamas refuses to surrender, the premier claims he has received assurances from the US president-elect that Israel will be able to resume fighting.

Romi Gonen reunites with her family at the Tel Hashomer Hospital in Ramat Gan, January 19, 2025. (Maayan Toaf/GPO)

Mixed signals

Trump and his team seem to be sending mixed signals regarding whether they’d support this move.

Trump recalled telling Netanyahu during a call last week to “keep doing what you have to do.”

But he subsequently added, “This has to end. We want it to end.”

Trump’s incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz said last week that the US will back Israel if it needs to reenter Gaza.

But two days later, he reportedly told a group of hostage families that the incoming administration will make sure that all three phases of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement are implemented.

Families present at the meeting on Saturday expressed their concern over recent comments made by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said he received assurances from Netanyahu that Israel would resume fighting after the first phase, Axios reported.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attend a vote in the Knesset plenum, Jerusalem, December 31, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Smotrich has threatened to bring down the government if Netanyahu doesn’t follow through on the pledge.

The far-right minister has held off on doing so during the first phase, giving Netanyahu temporary breathing room, but the premier may be forced to decide between seeing through the second phase of the deal — with the release of the remaining living hostages — and maintaining his government.

‘Many moments of frustration’

The outgoing Biden administration has hinted that the premier could well choose the latter.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested on Friday that Netanyahu would say one thing in private conversations with the Biden administration and then often subsequently contradict himself in front of other audiences in order to ensure his government’s survival.

Blinken was asked during an interview with the New Yorker whether Netanyahu had been truthful in his correspondence with the US.

“In the moment of those conversations, yes,” Blinken responded, laughing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, October 22, 2024. (Haim Zach/GPO)

“He proceeds in many ways on the basis of what gets [him] to tomorrow and keeps [his] coalition together,” Blinken explained. “He might say one thing to me, and then depending on the audience he’s before next, maybe that takes a little bit of a different turn.”

“There are many moments of frustration… but you have to keep your eye on the prize,” he added.

The Trump effect

The Biden administration backed the intensification of Israel’s fight against Iran and its proxies, which helped isolate Hamas and create the conditions for the hostage deal, but it’s hard to argue that Trump wasn’t the one who helped bring home that prize — inking the same deal that Biden had failed to finalize for months.

“This agreement could only have happened as a result of our historic victory in November,” Trump declared at a Washington rally on Sunday.

US President-elect Donald Trump, left, dances as the Village People perform ‘Y.M.C.A’ at a rally ahead of the 60th Presidential Inauguration, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The Arab officials who spoke with The Times of Israel said Witkoff had moved Netanyahu more in their one meeting than Biden had in countless conversations over the past year.

But that pressure was coming from a two-pronged team of Trump and Witkoff — two individuals who, while overwhelmingly sympathetic toward Israel, are not ideologically so.

Trump campaigned on ending the war, privately told Netanyahu as much when they met in July, and won the support of a decisive number of Arab Americans for doing so. Witkoff, too, seems intent on striking a more balanced approach, as he is tasked with expanding the Abraham Accords — a goal that will require ending the Gaza war permanently and creating an irreversible political horizon for the Palestinians.

“The Abraham Accords are not just agreements. They are a blueprint for a future where peace is not the exception, but is the expectation,” Witkoff told the DC rally on Sunday.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) meets US President-elect Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff at his office in Jerusalem, January 11, 2025. (Prime Minister’s Office Spokesperson)

NBC News reported on Saturday that Witkoff is considering a visit to Gaza, as he works to maintain the nascent ceasefire deal that commenced on Sunday.

“Remember, there [are] a lot of people, radicals, fanatics, not just from the Hamas side, from the right wing of the Israeli side, who are absolutely incentivized to blow this whole deal up,” a transition official told NBC, offering rare criticism of Israel from a Trump official, albeit an anonymous one. “If we don’t help the Gazans, if we don’t make their life better, if we don’t give them a sense of hope, there’s going to be a rebellion.”

But starting January 20, Trump will be surrounded by a large group of aides far more ideologically supportive of Israel, including Waltz, nominee for secretary of state Marco Rubio, nominee for ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and nominee for defense secretary Pete Hegseth.

That group has been effusive in its support of Netanyahu and would likely be willing to back whatever decision the Israeli premier makes. Trump, on the other hand, has since winning the Republican nomination broadcast warm relations with the prime minister, but after his last term, he excoriated the premier for congratulating Biden on winning the 2020 election, accused him of backing out of an operation to kill Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Qassem Soleimani, and suggested he was a bigger obstacle to peace than Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Trump’s apparent suspicion of Netanyahu and his proven ability to successfully pressure him when necessary would suggest that the 47th US president will be less accepting than his predecessor if the premier continues rejecting a role for the PA in Gaza while refusing to advance any other viable alternative to Hamas rule.

And despite the large group of ardently pro-Israel advisers now entering the decision-making circle that for the past several weeks has just been Trump and Witkoff, the latter has positioned himself at the top of the pile after securing the hostage deal.

Real estate developer Steve Witkoff speaks at US President-elect Donald Trump’s Victory Rally at the Capital One Arena on January 19, 2025 in Washington, DC. (SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Trump thanked Witkoff publicly during the rally on Sunday night, hailing his negotiation skills — something that will only further boost the real estate investor’s diplomatic clout in the region.

Witkoff, in turn, asserted that the credit was all Trump’s.

“As we look ahead, the challenges remain significant, but so do the opportunities. Under your leadership, Mr. President, we will continue to expand the circle of peace, strengthen partnerships and promote prosperity across the world,” Witkoff said.

CBS News reported that Trump has had “a hyper fixation” on winning the Nobel Peace Prize. The interest in the award has reemerged as he sought to close the hostage deal, an unnamed Trump aide told the network.

Maintaining the ceasefire past its first phase will ostensibly boost Trump’s chances further.

Israeli hostage families and others rally on the National Mall near the Washington Monument, to encourage President-elect Donald Trump to bring home remaining hostages held in Gaza, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Waltz and other Trump aides have also said the US wants to use a Gaza ceasefire to lay the groundwork for expanding the Abraham Accords – specifically by brokering a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh has demanded the establishment of a timebound, irreversible path to a Palestinian state – something Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected.

Susceptible to pressure from the US even when Trump was only president-elect, the prime minister may be more so once Trump is back in the White House.

“Our incoming administration has achieved all of this in the Middle East, in less than three months, without being president — we’ve achieved more… than they’ve achieved in four years with being president,” Trump boasted on Saturday, setting a high bar for the next four years.

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