UN nuclear watchdog chief may visit Iran as Trump victory shuffles geopolitical deck

UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed atomic program and that he expected to work cooperatively with US President-elect Donald Trump.

News of the possible visit came even as Iran says it is preparing to launch a fresh attack on Israel in response to an assault on military sites last month, a move likely to draw an Israeli retaliation and further boost already high tensions in the region.

Grossi had previously said he hoped to go to Tehran ahead of the November 5 US vote as he seeks to resolve several long-standing issues that have dogged relations between Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western powers.

“We are already talking to colleagues in Iran for my next visit, maybe in a few days. We still have to confirm the time but this will be done,” he told a news conference in Rome after a nuclear energy event.

Without confirming it, Iranian officials have welcomed a visit from Grossi, saying Tehran is ready to cooperate with the IAEA to resolve outstanding issues, without giving details.

Issues at stake include Tehran’s barring of uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams in the country and its failure for years to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

Iran has also stepped up nuclear activity since 2019 after then-president Trump abandoned a 2015 deal Iran reached with world powers under which it curbed enrichment — seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear weapons capability — and restored tough US sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Tehran is now enriching uranium to up to 60 percent fissile purity, just a short step from the roughly 90% required for an atom bomb. It has enough higher-enriched uranium to produce about four nuclear bombs if refined further, according to an IAEA yardstick.

Iran has long denied any nuclear weapons ambitions, saying it is enriching uranium for civilian energy uses only, though there are no civilian uses for its highly enriched uranium, according to experts.

The Islamic Republic has vowed for decades to eliminate the State of Israel, which considers an Iranian nuclear weapon an existential threat.

How Trump decides to handle Iran in his second White House term remains unclear, with the president-elect both speaking out against the use of military force in the Middle East but employing tough talk in support of Israel.

At an election rally on Tuesday, he said he wanted Iran to be a “very successful country” but that it “can’t have nuclear weapons.”

Snapback sanctions

Ahead of the US election, there had been signs Tehran was ready to re-engage with European parties to the collapsed 2015 deal — Britain, France and Germany — and the US to find a way to revive talks in the hope of relaxing US sanctions.

But the regional geopolitical context has darkened to the detriment of any diplomatic breakthrough since the Iranian-backed Palestinian terror group Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, precipitating the Gaza war, and as Tehran has increased its military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The October 7 massacre saw terrorists kill 1,200 people and kidnap 251.

Israel’s current assault on Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, also backed by Iran, and tit-for-tat missile strikes between Iran and Israel have raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict with some questioning whether it would be in Tehran’s interest to return to talks with a potentially tougher Trump administration.

Iran has threatened Israel with a “crushing response” after Israeli planes hit military sites across the country last month in retaliation for hundreds of ballistic missiles launched by Tehran on October 1.

US President Joe Biden’s administration has reportedly warned Iran that it will not be able to restrain Israel should Iran attack again, with Israel saying it is prepared to attack sites it spared in its last bombardment.

Publicly, Iranian political leaders have downplayed the significance of the US election result on Tehran’s policies.

Their main concern, though, is the potential for Trump to empower Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iranian nuclear sites, carry out assassinations and reimpose his “maximum pressure” policy through heightened sanctions on the country’s oil industry.

The European powers have sought to raise pressure on Iran in recent months despite scant leverage amid concerns the next Trump administration will need time to review Middle East policy.

That could leave little time to put a joint action plan together before October 2025, the date for the expiration of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and the big powers’ prerogative to restore UN sanctions.