US officials believe hostage-ceasefire deal unlikely by end of Biden’s term – report
WSJ: Hamas makes demands and then refuses to agree to proposal when they’re met; officials say potential full war between Israel and Hezbollah would make things still more complex
Multiple senior US officials have reportedly acknowledged that a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas is unlikely before the end of US President Joe Biden’s term in office in January, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
“No deal is imminent. I’m not sure it ever gets done,” said one of the US officials, speaking to the newspaper on condition of anonymity.
The officials told the outlet that one of the biggest obstacles to a deal has been the ratio of Palestinian security prisoners Israel must release in exchange for each hostage. The US has said publicly that Hamas has raised the number of prisoners it originally asked for, even after executing six hostages earlier this month.
More broadly, WSJ reported that Hamas has made demands and then refuses to agree to a deal after Israel accepted them.
“There’s no chance now of it happening,” an official from an Arab country told the newspaper. “Everyone is in a wait-and-see mode until after the [US] election. The outcome will determine what can happen in the next administration.”
Another major obstacle to a deal, cited by US officials, is the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
During more than 11 months of fighting Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel on a near-daily basis, saying it is doing so in support of Hamas. This has led to constant cross-border fire, although the sides have avoided escalating to an all-out war.
However, the situation appeared to be reaching a boiling point following the back-to-back mass detonations of Hezbollah’s communication devices, which injured thousands of terror operatives in an attack blamed on Israel.
Those blasts were followed by airstrikes carried out by the IDF on Thursday against over 100 Hezbollah rocket projectile launchers in Lebanon that the army said were primed for a retaliatory strike.
US officials from the White House, State Department and Pentagon told the Journal that the possibility of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah complicates diplomacy between Israel and Hamas.
Washington has long argued that the surest way to restore calm along Israel’s northern border is by securing a ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has asserted that it would halt its near-daily attacks against Israel if the fighting in the coastal enclave ends.
One of the officials told the Wall Street Journal that “it would be irresponsible” for the US to stop working toward a deal between Israel and Hamas, but that both sides needed to make sacrifices for it to be achievable.
“As we’ve said from the outset, it is going to require leadership and compromise,” the official said, “and we urge all sides to demonstrate it.”
Nonetheless, Biden officials continued to stress in public and private that they will continue working to secure a deal between Israel and Hamas.
“I can tell you that we do not believe that deal is falling apart,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters on Thursday, before the Journal report was published.
But White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged Wednesday that there has not been progress made in hostage talks, lamenting that “we aren’t any closer to [a deal] now than we were even a week ago.”
US officials have for weeks said a new proposal would be presented soon for a deal.
Months of negotiations have not succeeded in reaching an agreement for the return of the 101 hostages still believed to be held captive in Gaza, more than 11 months after Hamas attacked Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, launching the ongoing war.
The IDF’s envoy to hostage deal talks poured cold water Thursday evening on a reported new Israeli offer, saying the outline — which a Hamas official publicly rejected as soon as it was reported — was in fact unknown to the Israeli negotiating team.
According to the reported proposal, Hamas would release all of its hostages at once, rather than in drawn-out phases, and would allow for a new government to take over the Gaza Strip; in exchange, Israel would end the war in Gaza and ensure safe passage out of the strip for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, alongside a release of Palestinian security prisoners.
It is believed that 97 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 33 confirmed dead by the IDF.
Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 40,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 17,000 combatants in battle and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.
