Weakening of Hezbollah enabled Lebanon to fill 2-year-old presidential vacancy
Joseph Aoun is first president since 1990s not to be pre-approved by Tehran and Damascus, signaling an end to Iran-backed terror group’s control of Lebanese politics, says analyst
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The weakening of Hezbollah in last year’s war with Israel allowed Lebanon’s long-deadlocked parliament to reach a consensus around a president who has the confidence of the international community.
Lebanese Armed Forces chief Joseph Aoun, who was elected on Thursday — ending a more than two-year vacancy — signaled a readjustment of Lebanon’s foreign policy as the country works with international creditors to forge a way out of six years of deepening financial crisis.
Deadlock in parliament between pro- and anti-Hezbollah blocs had stalemated a dozen previous attempts to elect a president, leaving the country largely rudderless in its efforts to secure an emergency bailout.
But two months of full-fledged war with Israel last autumn dealt heavy blows to the Iran-backed terror group, whose longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut in September.
Hezbollah also lost a strategic ally last month when Islamist-led rebels ousted longtime Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, another fixture of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” network of regional proxies bent on Israel’s destruction.
Hezbollah’s “political defeat follows its devastating military defeat,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
Lina Khatib, of Britain’s Chatham House think tank, said it was “the first time since the end of the Lebanese civil war [in 1990] that a Lebanese president is elected without prior approval by Iran and by the ousted Syrian regime.”
“Hezbollah’s acceptance of Aoun’s election underlines that it no longer dictates the political agenda,” she told AFP.
“The significant shift in the political status quo… is the direct result of the larger geopolitical changes in the Middle East in which Iran’s influence in the region is ending.”
Foreign backing
The United States, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt had all lobbied heavily for Aoun’s election.
“The role of the quintet was decisive, particularly the last-minute support of Saudi Arabia,” a French diplomatic source told AFP on condition of anonymity.
The kingdom had appeared to lose interest in Lebanon in recent years as the influence of Hezbollah and its benefactor Iran grew.
In a possible nod to his backers, Aoun in his inaugural speech Thursday committed to “a policy of positive neutrality” and better relations with Arab countries.
He also pledged a state monopoly on bearing arms. The comment signaled difficult discussions on disarming Hezbollah, which kept its weapons after Lebanon’s civil war ended in 1990 to fight Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon.
Israel seized the so-called security strip in 1982, in a bid to stem persistent attacks by Lebanon’s Shiite Amal movement, and withdrew from there in 2000.
Amal, now an ally of Hezbollah, is led by Lebanon’s powerful parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who has served as a mediator between Western powers and Hezbollah during negotiations for the ceasefire agreement with Israel.
A much-weakened Hezbollah signed a ceasefire agreement with Israel on November 27 — almost fourteen months after the terror group, unprovoked, began its near-daily attacks on Israel, forcing the displacement of some 60,000 people. The attacks began a day after fellow Iran-backed terror group Hamas stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, sparking the war in Gaza.
Berri and Hezbollah have accused Israel of violating the agreement dozens of times. A source close to Hezbollah and Amal told AFP that the two parties voted for Aoun only after receiving assurances on the reinforcement of the agreement “and the name of the next army chief.”
‘Right leader for this time’
In the first round of voting on Thursday, Aoun failed to secure the required two-thirds majority, but after meeting with representatives of Hezbollah and Amal, he achieved that in the second round with 99 of the 128 votes cast.
Analysts say the army’s central role in implementing the ceasefire with Israel was a key factor in Aoun’s rise to the presidency.
US President Joe Biden said on Thursday that Aoun was “the right leader for this time” and would provide “critical leadership” in overseeing the truce.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, the Lebanese army is to deploy in the country’s south as the Israel Defense Forces withdraws from there. Hezbollah is required to dismantle its remaining military infrastructure in the area and pull its forces back north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the border with Israel.
Israel has accused the Lebanese military of deploying too slowly in southern Lebanon and failing to act against violations by Hezbollah. The IDF is reportedly planning to extend its stay in Lebanon past the end of January — the ceasefire agreement’s deadline for Israel’s withdrawal — should Beirut fail to reign in the terror group.
Khashan, the American University professor, said it was now down to Aoun, with his military background, to persuade Hezbollah to lay down its remaining weapons.
“Only a president hailing from the army can disarm Hezbollah, especially after Israel destroyed more than 80 percent of its military hardware,” he said.
At this stage, “Hezbollah has no option but to transform itself into a political party without a military component.”
