The Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/writers/simon-davies/ News from Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World Tue, 22 Sep 2026 22:20:38 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2018/11/toi_icon_512-200x200.png Simon Davies | The Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/writers/simon-davies/ 32 32 How Netanyahu and his allies won by a knockout: The data https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-netanyahu-and-his-allies-won-by-a-knockout-the-data/ Mon, 07 Nov 2022 10:34:40 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2868562 Turnout was up overall, but especially for Netanyahu's bloc, and most of all among Haredim. And while he optimized his bloc to beat the threshold, his opponents emphatically didn't

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]]> The final countdown: What could change the election in the last days https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-final-countdown-what-could-change-the-election-in-the-last-days/ Sun, 30 Oct 2022 10:50:00 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2862666 If none of the wobbling parties falls below the threshold, the result may hinge on a seat or two; but if any of Ra'am, Hadash-Ta'al, Labor or Meretz fails, Netanyahu wins easily

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]]> One anti-Netanyahu party below the threshold would almost certainly hand him victory https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-anti-netanyahu-party-below-the-threshold-would-almost-certainly-hand-him-victory/ Sun, 23 Oct 2022 11:53:14 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2857164 As the election race enters the final straight, Religious Zionism becomes a problem for Likud, Yesh Atid courts female voters, Gantz shifts focus, Arab parties aim to boost turnout

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]]> Will weeks of consistent polling suddenly shift in campaign’s last 2 chaotic weeks? https://www.timesofisrael.com/will-weeks-of-consistent-polling-suddenly-shift-in-campaigns-last-2-chaotic-weeks/ Sun, 16 Oct 2022 10:35:05 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2853307 The blocs have remained remarkably stable; even support for the parties within the blocs has been fairly steady; but then, of course, the real campaign is only starting now

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]]> Why Gantz’s campaign might only really begin the day after the elections https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-gantzs-campaign-might-only-really-begin-the-day-after-the-elections/ Sun, 09 Oct 2022 07:08:00 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2849801 Maintaining good relations with all sides, the defense minister is hoping neither Lapid nor Netanyahu can get 61seats, and he'll sweep in as the 'palatable compromise candidate'

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]]> For Netanyahu, the path to victory is more about mobilization than persuasion https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-netanyahu-the-path-to-victory-is-more-about-mobilization-than-persuasion/ Sun, 02 Oct 2022 10:42:35 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2846797 2021's vote saw a major drop-off in turnout from right-leaning and religious areas compared to 2020; in this campaign's final month, Likud will focus on reversing that trend

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]]> Yair Lapid’s campaign dilemma, and how it connects to his 2-states speech at the UN https://www.timesofisrael.com/yair-lapids-campaign-dilemma-and-how-it-connects-to-his-2-states-speech-at-the-un/ Sun, 25 Sep 2022 11:47:12 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2843369 He wants to grow Yesh Atid's share of the anti-Netanyahu vote, without pushing Labor, Meretz or even Yisrael Beytenu below the threshold

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]]> How close is Netanyahu to the magic 61? https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-close-is-netanyahu-to-the-magic-61/ Sun, 18 Sep 2022 09:33:40 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2838640&preview=true&preview_id=2838640 As our comparative data shows, the answer to that question right now depends on who's doing the polling

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]]> Arab turnout may hold the key to election, but for the pro- or anti-Netanyahu bloc? https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-turnout-may-hold-the-key-to-election-but-for-the-pro-or-anti-netanyahu-bloc/ Sun, 11 Sep 2022 10:17:07 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2834243&preview=true&preview_id=2834243 The Arab parties fare better when running together, yet Ra'am is determined to continue its independent course. It sat in the anti-Bibi coalition last time, but alliances can shift

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]]> Will an ‘election surprise’ party break the political deadlock? https://www.timesofisrael.com/will-an-election-surprise-party-break-the-political-deadlock/ Sun, 04 Sep 2022 11:34:39 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2829869&preview=true&preview_id=2829869 Protest party Fiery Youth hopes to replicate the Pensioners' longshot success of 2006. But it could also meet the same fate as 2021's quickly forgotten Shulmanim

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]]> As the campaign reaches the halfway point, how ‘predictive’ are the polls right now? https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-the-campaign-reaches-the-halfway-point-how-predictive-are-the-polls-right-now/ Sun, 28 Aug 2022 11:40:06 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2825749 In the past 3 elections, the polling 2 months out was remarkably close to the eventual results, certainly regarding the blocs, suggesting accuracy and pretty settled public opinion

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]]> Why this campaign will be the toughest yet for Avigdor Liberman https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-this-campaign-will-be-the-toughest-yet-for-avigdor-liberman/ Sun, 21 Aug 2022 09:25:25 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2821826 His core base of FSU voters is dwindling, he's left the Netanyahu bloc and partnered with Arab and left-wing parties. It's hard to see where Yisrael Beytenu can draw fresh support

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]]> Paltry bump for Lapid after Gaza op shows Israelis’ ‘electoral identity’ is baked in https://www.timesofisrael.com/paltry-bump-for-lapid-after-gaza-op-shows-israelis-electoral-identity-is-baked-in/ Sun, 14 Aug 2022 10:06:25 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2817932 Over two-thirds of voters think the PM handled the fight against Palestinian Islamic Jihad well, but so far that's barely boosted his party or changed the balance between the blocs

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]]> The mergers, or missed mergers, that could determine the election https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-mergers-or-missed-mergers-that-could-determine-the-election/ Sun, 07 Aug 2022 10:03:17 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2813598&preview=true&preview_id=2813598 Will Ben Gvir and Smotrich maintain their alliance on the far right, and should Labor and Meretz revive theirs on the left? The political stakes could not be higher

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]]> If not Netanyahu, then who? https://www.timesofisrael.com/if-not-netanyahu-then-who/ Sun, 31 Jul 2022 10:39:39 +0000 https://www.timesofisrael.com/?p=2808806&preview=true&preview_id=2808806 In 2 new polls, Zionist Spirit cleared the threshold, potentially handing the Likud leader a majority. But Shaked's party may well slip back, so who else might break the deadlock?

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