Why what happens next in Venezuela matters to Israel

About a minute into his remarks Saturday on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump likened the operation to the American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the end of last June’s 12-day Israel-Iran war.

With that comparison, Trump was giving his answer to a question that has burned in the minds of Americans, Israelis and beyond as the smoke cleared over Caracas: Which part of history, if any, is repeating itself?

Will Venezuela be another Iraq — a long, bloody, and costly American misadventure in an oil-rich nation, as Trump’s critics fear? Another Libya, in which the US helped depose a dictator but failed to bring stability?

Or will it, as Trump’s comparison to Iran suggests, be a short, contained military operation with a clear goal that doesn’t ensnare US troops in an open-ended and undefined foreign entanglement?

A key question that has remained unclear amid unfolding events has been what exactly Trump means when he says the US will now “run” Venezuela.

Despite the Iran comparison, the US president has mused about “boots on the ground,” though for now he appears focused on tapping Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. On Wednesday, Trump suggested US oversight of Venezuela could last years.

His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has suggested a less intensive intervention, relying on cooperative remnants of the Maduro regime. And his press secretary said Venezuelan authorities’ “decisions are going to continue to be dictated by the United States of America.”

The answer to this question also matters to Israel, for two reasons: first, because what happens in Caracas may ripple out to Tehran, Israel’s chief regional adversary; and second, because the extent of US involvement in Venezuela will likely affect how much attention Trump pays to the Middle East.

For decades, the US has been deeply involved in our own region, waging wars, brokering peace, cutting diplomatic deals and much more. Consider, for example, that every US president dating back to George H.W. Bush has ordered airstrikes in Iraq.

As a staunch US ally in the Middle East, Israel enjoys pride of place and is used to receiving quite a bit of the president’s attention. US military action in the region isn’t, by any means, the only reason that Israel has remained a priority for successive administrations, but it is part of the equation.

If, however, the US sends troops south to Venezuela, the Middle East will recede in importance for Washington — and, likely, the world — as diplomats, generals and policymakers occupy themselves with the conflict in South America. The Middle East will receive even less focus if Trump also acts on his desire to take control of Greenland.

Such a scenario could mean less global scrutiny of Israeli policy and actions. It might mean that some of the energy of mass protests directed against Israel for two years will now be pointed elsewhere.

But it would probably also mean that the White House will be less engaged with Jerusalem. Would Trump have been able to seal the Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal if he were overseeing battles in Venezuela? Would he have sent B-2 bombers to Iran’s Fordo nuclear site if US planes were also bombing Ciudad Bolivar? What would a Venezuela war mean for the US push toward Israel-Saudi normalization?

Beyond those questions, there are the implications of Maduro’s capture for the government in Iran, which is now beset by the country’s largest protests in several years. As our diplomatic correspondent, Lazar Berman, wrote earlier this week, the Maduro raid shows Iran’s leaders that Trump “is willing to back up his threats.”

As the death toll rises from the Iranian demonstrations, Trump has threatened to “come to [the] rescue” of the embattled protesters. He’s also vowed to take action if Iran rebuilds its nuclear or ballistic missile program. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was a close Maduro ally, is surely listening as he strives to shore up his own regime.

Chatter among the protesters in Iran, according to an AP analysis, is fixated on whether Khamenei will meet the same fate as Maduro. The supreme leader is said to have gone into hiding.

On Wednesday, Iran’s military chief issued a threat of his own, saying the country “considers the escalation of hostile rhetoric against the Iranian nation a threat and will not tolerate its continuation without responding.”

As of now, Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, is running Venezuela. But if a new US-backed government takes her place, the tight ties between Caracas and Tehran will surely loosen. The US is already reportedly pressuring Rodriguez to expel Iranian personnel, along with others. That would also be a bad sign for the Hezbollah terror group, which has had a presence in Venezuela.

“What happens next in Venezuela?” will probably be the question of the hour for quite some time. Whatever the answer, its impacts will be felt not only in Caracas and Washington, but in Jerusalem and Tehran.