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ISRAEL AT WAR - DAY 345

Simon Davies

Simon Davies

Simon Davies is a partner at Number 10 Strategies, an international strategic, research and communications consultancy that has polled and run campaigns for presidents, prime ministers, political parties and major corporations across dozens of countries in four continents.
Leader of the Likud party Benjamin Netanyahu addresses supporters, flanked by his wife Sara, at campaign headquarters in Jerusalem early on November 2, 2022, after the end of voting for national elections (Menahem Kahana / AFP)
November 7, 2022, 12:34 pm
How Netanyahu and his allies won by a knockout: The data
Turnout was up overall, but especially for Netanyahu’s bloc, and most of all among Haredim. And while he optimized his bloc to beat the threshold, his opponents emphatically didn’t
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
Prominent Israeli politicians ahead of the 25th Knesset election: Top row, left to right: Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, Benjamin Netanyahu, Aryeh Deri, Moshe Gafni; middle row, left to right: Zehava Galon, Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman, Merav Michaeli; bottom row, left to right: Ayelet Shaked, Sami Abou Shahadeh, Mansour Abbas, Ahmad Tibi, Ayman Odeh. (Flash90, GPO)
October 30, 2022, 12:50 pm
The final countdown: What could change the election in the last days
If none of the wobbling parties falls below the threshold, the result may hinge on a seat or two; but if any of Ra’am, Hadash-Ta’al, Labor or Meretz fails, Netanyahu wins easily
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, October 23, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
October 23, 2022, 2:53 pm
One anti-Netanyahu party below the threshold would almost certainly hand him victory
As the election race enters the final straight, Religious Zionism becomes a problem for Likud, Yesh Atid courts female voters, Gantz shifts focus, Arab parties aim to boost turnout
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, October 16, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
October 16, 2022, 1:35 pm
Will weeks of consistent polling suddenly shift in campaign’s last 2 chaotic weeks?
The blocs have remained remarkably stable; even support for the parties within the blocs has been fairly steady; but then, of course, the real campaign is only starting now
By Joshua Hantman and Simon Davies
Benny Gantz speaks at the launch of the National Unity party campaign for the upcoming elections in Tel Aviv, September 6, 2022.(Tomer Neuberg/Flash90)
October 9, 2022, 10:08 am
Why Gantz’s campaign might only really begin the day after the elections
Maintaining good relations with all sides, the defense minister is hoping neither Lapid nor Netanyahu can get 61seats, and he’ll sweep in as the ‘palatable compromise candidate’
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
Likud party and opposition leader MK Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a Kikar HaShabbat conference at the Waldorf Astoria Jerusalem Hotel, September 12, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
October 2, 2022, 1:42 pm
For Netanyahu, the path to victory is more about mobilization than persuasion
2021’s vote saw a major drop-off in turnout from right-leaning and religious areas compared to 2020; in this campaign’s final month, Likud will focus on reversing that trend
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, September 25, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
September 25, 2022, 2:47 pm
Yair Lapid’s campaign dilemma, and how it connects to his 2-states speech at the UN
He wants to grow Yesh Atid’s share of the anti-Netanyahu vote, without pushing Labor, Meretz or even Yisrael Beytenu below the threshold
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu delivers an election campaign speech from inside a modified delivery truck with a side wall replaced with bulletproof glass, in the Kiryat Yovel neighborhood of Jerusalem, September 11, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
September 18, 2022, 12:33 pm
How close is Netanyahu to the magic 61?
As our comparative data shows, the answer to that question right now depends on who’s doing the polling
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, September 11, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
September 11, 2022, 1:17 pm
Arab turnout may hold the key to election, but for the pro- or anti-Netanyahu bloc?
The Arab parties fare better when running together, yet Ra’am is determined to continue its independent course. It sat in the anti-Bibi coalition last time, but alliances can shift
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
Fiery Youth party chair Hadar Muchtar speaks at a meeting of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, June 27, 2022. (Screenshot/YouTube)
September 4, 2022, 2:34 pm
Will an ‘election surprise’ party break the political deadlock?
Protest party Fiery Youth hopes to replicate the Pensioners’ longshot success of 2006. But it could also meet the same fate as 2021’s quickly forgotten Shulmanim
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, August 28, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
August 28, 2022, 2:40 pm
As the campaign reaches the halfway point, how ‘predictive’ are the polls right now?
In the past 3 elections, the polling 2 months out was remarkably close to the eventual results, certainly regarding the blocs, suggesting accuracy and pretty settled public opinion
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, August 21, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
August 21, 2022, 12:25 pm
Why this campaign will be the toughest yet for Avigdor Liberman
His core base of FSU voters is dwindling, he’s left the Netanyahu bloc and partnered with Arab and left-wing parties. It’s hard to see where Yisrael Beytenu can draw fresh support
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
The state of the Israeli election campaign: Poll of polls, August 14, 2022, showing the number of seats parties would be expected to win if the election was held today, based on a weighing of the latest opinion polls.
August 14, 2022, 1:06 pm
Paltry bump for Lapid after Gaza op shows Israelis’ ‘electoral identity’ is baked in
Over two-thirds of voters think the PM handled the fight against Palestinian Islamic Jihad well, but so far that’s barely boosted his party or changed the balance between the blocs
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
MKs Bezalel Smotrich (L) and Itamar Ben Gvir (C) at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem's Old City on October 20, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
August 7, 2022, 1:03 pm
The mergers, or missed mergers, that could determine the election
Will Ben Gvir and Smotrich maintain their alliance on the far right, and should Labor and Meretz revive theirs on the left? The political stakes could not be higher
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
Benjamin Netanyahu (right) and Ayelet Shaked in the Knesset (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
July 31, 2022, 1:39 pm
If not Netanyahu, then who?
In 2 new polls, Zionist Spirit cleared the threshold, potentially handing the Likud leader a majority. But Shaked’s party may well slip back, so who else might break the deadlock?
By Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman
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