The never-ending war
More than 18 months after Hamas’s invasion and slaughter, the terrible truth is that neither of the resulting war’s two key goals is close to being realized
David Horovitz is the founding editor of The Times of Israel. He is the author of "Still Life with Bombers" (2004) and "A Little Too Close to God" (2000), and co-author of "Shalom Friend: The Life and Legacy of Yitzhak Rabin" (1996). He previously edited The Jerusalem Post (2004-2011) and The Jerusalem Report (1998-2004).
This Editor’s Note was sent out earlier Wednesday in ToI’s weekly update email to members of the Times of Israel Community. To receive these Editor’s Notes as they’re released, join the ToI Community here.
More than 18 months into Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas in Gaza and secure the return of all the hostages, the terrible truth is that neither of those goals is close to being realized.
The IDF, as our military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported from Rafah this week, would like to believe that cracks are beginning to appear in Hamas’s hold on Gaza. Israel’s current cessation of aid supplies means there is less for Hamas to seize and sell. And Hamas’s civil governance is being weakened by the IDF’s targeting of Hamas’s police force and its bureaucrats. Intermittent protests by Gazans against Hamas indicate a degree of local will and capacity to defy the terrorist-government.
But the IDF knows that Hamas rule is not on the verge of collapse and that it is proving able to recruit thousands if not tens of thousands more gunmen and, despite some reports to the contrary, to pay them. And it knows that Hamas, no longer an organized army but still a highly dangerous guerrilla force, is not going to lay down its arms.
As far as the IDF is concerned, the hope is that the current relatively limited but constant military pressure will push Hamas toward another deal, in which some though not all hostages would be freed, in return for a resumed truce during which Hamas would, of course, seek to rebuild both its military and civil capacities.
But the military campaign that resumed last month, following the collapse of January’s envisaged three-phase agreement, is not taking place in a vacuum.
Within the Israeli government, far-right Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich is leading the calls for much wider military action — essentially, a rapid return to the high-intensity campaign of the first months of the war. This would entail colossal strain on the over-extended standing army and reserve forces, and would place the hostages’ lives at still greater risk. At the same time, globally, pressure is growing for a resumption of aid as supplies run out, with the Israeli leadership yet to formulate a mechanism whereby any such renewed inflow of supplies can be kept out of Hamas’s hands.
Gradually, meanwhile, the IDF is taking control over an ever-greater proportion of the territory of Gaza, holding perhaps 30% of the Strip at present — having expanded its so-called buffer zone all around the Gaza perimeter, from Zikim in the north to Kerem Shalom in the south, while retaining its hold on the Philadelphi Corridor along the final, Gaza-Egypt section of the border. A zone that had extended some 700 meters to 1 kilometer into Gaza has now deepened to about twice that size. In addition, the IDF is widening its presence in the southern Rafah area and the so-called Morag Corridor, cutting off Rafah from the rest of the Strip. When that is completed, the IDF will hold some 40% of Gaza.
This has echoes of the Security Zone that Israel maintained in south Lebanon until its hurried evacuation and withdrawal in 2000, with forces static and vulnerable inside enemy territory. Except that in the case of south Lebanon, the pro-Israel proxy South Lebanon Army bore the brunt of that deployment.
Defense Minister Katz has repeatedly made clear that the IDF is to remain in its Gaza buffer zones, as in the positions it has set up inside Syria and Lebanon, for the foreseeable future.
In Lebanon, the new government is showing some signs of readiness to confront Hezbollah, and the international ceasefire mechanism there gives the IDF the right to tackle Hezbollah when it sees resumed terrorist activity; the IDF indeed continues to target Hezbollah activity on a daily basis.
In Gaza, there is of course no government other than Hamas, and, with the hostages as leverage, Hamas has resisted ceasefire terms that would enable the IDF to prevent its rearming and to resume military action to thwart resumed terrorism.
In his statement to the nation on Saturday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that he is not prepared to end the war and withdraw the IDF in order to secure the release of the remaining 59 hostages — 21-24 of whom are believed to be alive, including four soldiers abducted while fighting Hamas on October 7.
And he derided the notion of “tricking” Hamas by ostensibly agreeing to end the war, securing the hostages’ return, and then returning to the military campaign. “Hamas are a group of despicable murderers, but they’re not stupid,” he declared, elaborating that the terror group and its supporters are demanding binding, hermetic international guarantees — such as irrevocable UN Security Council resolutions, with provisions for the implementation of sanctions — that would prevent a resumption of the war.
It is unclear that this is the case — unclear, that is, whether any ostensible international guarantee would actually be inviolable. There is also the question of whether astute Israeli-US diplomacy could enable the passage of a resolution drafted so as to outlaw violations by either side, there being no doubt that Hamas would indeed breach any ceasefire.
Netanyahu’s “I won’t capitulate to Hamas” speech prompted understandable cries of outrage and despair from the families of many of the hostages. The January deal, delayed for months by Netanyahu, has collapsed after the first of its three envisaged phases; another partial deal has yet to take shape; the prospect of a deal to free all the hostages has receded into the far distance, if not beyond that. And for the State of Israel, about to turn 77, the longest war grinds on.
The Times of Israel Community.