Elizabeth Tsurkov: Sharaa’s Syria is no threat to Israel

Welcome to The Times of Israel’s Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what’s behind the news that spins the globe.

Israel and Jews around the world marked three years since the October 7 attacks this week. It was a time to remember the fallen and the survivors. It was also an opportunity to take stock of Israel’s conflicts and what Israel should do next.

Elizabeth Tsurkov, a PhD student at Princeton University and Middle East scholar, says that Israel’s approach to Syria and Lebanon needs to be recalibrated.

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Israel thinks it has a “panacea” in its buffer zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, she argues. But it’s not clear how that solves Israel’s challenges, and at least in Syria, it is making Israel less safe.

She notes that Hezbollah is a badly weakened force and has lost a lot of legitimacy inside Lebanon. But the Joseph Aoun government is not about to risk domestic tension and even civil war by actually trying to disarm Hezbollah. Israel remaining in Lebanon only weakens the Aoun government further, Tsurkov argues.

In Syria, she says, decisions are made by a group of five people, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa. They are “deeply, deeply pragmatic,” says Tsurkov. They have sacrificed much to reach a position of power, and are not about to throw it away by picking a fight with Israel.

However, she warns, Israel is making a major mistake with its buffer zone in Syria. Instead of making the border safer, the IDF presence is antagonizing the locals and will eventually push some toward guerrilla warfare against Israel.

Lazar Focus is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Yitzchak Ledee.

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