Israel should worry about Saudi deal, but there is good news in Lebanon

Welcome to The Times of Israel’s Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what’s behind the news that spins the globe.

Even for Israeli standards, it’s been a pretty wild week in Israel’s neighborhood.

The ceasefire war between the US and Iran continues to escalate. The threats from US President Donald Trump against Iran grow ever more bombastic, but there is a real feeling that he might carry out a significant attack soon that goes well beyond the limited strikes that we have seen over the past two weeks.

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Iran is hitting back, primarily at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, saying it is targeting US bases in those countries.

The Iran-backed Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers, as that conflict began to heat up. Houthi threats to the Bab al-Mandeb would mean the Iranian axis is closing the two waterways connecting the Middle East and Europe to Asian markets.

There was slightly better news to the north. After six rounds of direct talks and an agreement that envisions peace between Israel and Lebanon, Lebanese forces began moving into the first pilot zone vacated by Israeli forces.

Joined by Times of Israel colleague Nava Freiberg, Lazar makes sense of the interconnected yet distinct theaters that Israeli leaders and citizens are following closely.

He explains what Iran is trying to do with its attack on Arab countries. It is determined to impose its reading of the MOU on the world, especially when it comes to control over the Strait of Hormuz.

And that is why it hasn’t hit Israel.

According to Lazar, Iran knows that Israel isn’t about to run to Trump and ask him to give in to Iran’s demands to get it to stop firing. Instead, Israel would relish the opportunity to carry out some of the attacks that it had to call off in April, and would likely go well beyond what the Americans are doing.

It doesn’t make sense for Israel to go out of its way to get involved either. For now, Iran is being degraded, it isn’t getting economic relief, and Trump is becoming increasingly frustrated with his Iranian interlocutors.  Meanwhile, life is fairly normal in Israel, with flights returning to Ben Gurion Airport and citizens focusing on the upcoming election.

Lazar also sheds light on alternative energy pathways being developed in the wake of Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Israel might have an opportunity to be a key element in some of these plans, but it has to change the tenor of relations with some of its Arab partners.

Lazar explained why the Saudi-US nuclear deal is a problem for Israel. It shows that the White House is not consulting Israel on strategic decisions. In addition, it represents a potential proliferation risk, especially if the current regime in Riyadh is replaced.

Turning to Lebanon, Lazar said that progress on the first pilot zone is undoubtedly a positive step. Still, the Lebanese army is incapable of taking on Hezbollah at this stage, and a lot will have to happen before disarming Hezbollah is a likely outcome.

It will be important to help the Lebanese government show the public that negotiations with Israel achieve results, especially the return of some civilians to their homes.

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

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