Final ToI election poll shows blocs in dead heat, neither has majority if campaign promises kept

The final election poll from The Times of Israel’s Zman Yisrael sister site again shows a deadlock between the bloc of right-wing parties led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Zionist opposition parties headed by Gadi Eisenkot.

Each bloc would receive 51 seats if elections were held today — well below the 61 seats needed to form a majority coalition.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc also includes two Arab-majority parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, which the poll shows would receive 9 and 5 seats respectively. But Eisenkot and almost every other Zionist Opposition party have pledged not to sit in a coalition with those parties, including Ra’am, which has expressed interest in joining a future government and recognizes Israel as a Jewish state.

Yoaz Hendel’s new Reservists party has avoided characterizing itself as part of either bloc, while pledging not to sit with either the ultra-Orthodox or Arab-majority parties. The Zman Yisrael poll shows Reservists managing to receive 3.6 percent of the vote, just barely crossing the 3.25% electoral threshold and receiving four seats.

The poll has Eisenkot’s Yashar party winning 23 seats, three less than last week’s survey.

Netanyahu’s Likud received the second largest number of seats with 21 — a one-seat increase from last week. US President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Netanyahu in between the publication of the two polls.

Ofer Winter’s right-wing People of Israel party, which has pledged to only sit in a Netanyahu-led government, failed to cross the electoral threshold, receiving just 3% of the vote, according to the poll.

Respondents were also asked whether they had made a final decision on who they would be voting for in Tuesday’s election. An overwhelming majority, 87%, stated that they had made a final decision. Only 2.4% said they were still undecided between parties in opposite blocs.

Over 25% of respondents said they’ve changed their minds over the course of the campaign’s final months, with 19.6% shifting between the blocs and 6% switching between parties within the same bloc. Over 74% said that they have not changed their minds.

Respondents were also asked whether Netanyahu should retire from politics if he fails to form a government. Approximately 60% answered in the affirmative — twice as many as those who said he should remain in politics.

The poll was conducted on October 14 and 15, with a representative sample of 500 Jewish and Arab respondents participating. The margin of error was 4.4%.