French far right party likely to win, but fall short of absolute majority, poll shows

PARIS – France’s far-right National Rally party is set to fall short of an absolute majority in Sunday’s parliamentary election run-off, an opinion poll shows, suggesting efforts by mainstream parties to block the far right might be working.

It is the second survey in as many days to show Marine Le Pen’s RN winning more seats than any other party, but also missing the 289 threshold required for an absolute majority.

This suggests that a “republican front,” by which more than 200 candidates across the political spectrum pulled out of three-way second rounds over the past days to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN option in their district, seems to be yielding results.

The IFOP poll for LCI and Le Figaro shows the RN winning 210 to 240 seats, down from 240-270 before the withdrawals.

The leftist New Popular Front is seen in second place, with 170 to 200 seats, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together group with 95 to 125 seats. The conservative Republicans is forecast to win 25 to 45 seats.

Yesterday, a Harris Interactive poll forecast 190 to 220 seats for the RN.

The RN have said they will not run the government if they do not gain the absolute majority they would need to have free rein.

Le Pen and party chief Jordan Bardella have also repeatedly criticized the “republican front,” saying it shows disdain for their voters.