Summary of military control in Ukraine, on the 15th day of Russia’s invasion

On the 15th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces are encircling at least four major cities and have inched closer towards the city limits of Kyiv.

Here is a summary of the situation on the ground:

The east

Kharkiv remains in Ukrainian hands despite increasingly intense Russian bombardment, according to Western sources, and the city is likely now surrounded.

Russian forces are also pressing an offensive through the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions that are backed by Russia and seeking to join up with Russian forces who entered from the north.

The city of Sumy in northeast Ukraine is now encircled by Russian troops but thousands have been able to leave through a humanitarian corridor.

Kyiv and the north

Kyiv remains under Ukrainian control despite heavy bombardments, though Western observers point to a Russian column of hundreds of vehicles outside the city. The British defense ministry says the column is suffering “continued losses” at the hands of Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces also retain control of the northern town of Chernihiv, which has seen heavy civilian casualties in recent days and appears to be encircled.

The south

Russia has besieged the strategic city of Mariupol, and attempts to evacuate an estimated 200,000 civilians from the city have so far failed.

The major port city of Odesa remains under Ukrainian control and has so far been spared fighting. The US Defense Department says Russian ground forces appeared primed to attack the city, possibly in coordination with an amphibious assault.

Russian forces last week took the southern city of Kherson, just north of Crimea, and there is now heavy fighting for control of the city of Mykolayiv to the northwest. Some sources believe Russia could bypass Mykolayiv and head directly for Odesa.

The west and center

The west of Ukraine remains largely spared from the fighting. The main city of Lviv has become a hub for foreign diplomatic missions and journalists, as well as Ukrainians seeking safety or wanting to leave the country.