Nicholas Carl: US and Iran are now in the Battle of Hormuz

Welcome to The Times of Israel’s Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what’s behind the news that spins the globe.

The ceasefire war between the US and Iran continues to expand.

Instead of making do with a wildly favorable memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump, Iranian leaders want more — especially recognition of their control over the vital Strait of Hormuz.

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Nicholas Carl, assistant director for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, said that the current fighting should be understood as the next stage in the US-Iran war — namely, the Battle of Hormuz.

Carl noted that the US and Israel achieved extensive military success in their campaign against Iran’s ballistic missiles, nuclear program, conventional forces, defense industry, and leadership, but that military success has not been translated into enduring strategic success.

“We haven’t compelled the Iranians to accept a positive political outcome for us yet,” said Carl. “They’re still willing to fight.”

The Iranians came dangerously close to imposing their will on Trump, and winning the war, he argued, as the president halted the campaign and signed an MOU that came under withering criticism even from his allies.

Iran is now trying to make its victory permanent, said Carl, and is working to press its advantage and end the war with its maximalist demands met.

Iran is seeking to destabilize energy markets sufficiently to convince Trump that an ongoing war is too costly, both economically as well as politically, and that he should accept a permanent agreement that is even more advantageous to Iran.

If the war ends with Iran receiving significant financial relief and in formal control of Hormuz, he said, it will have won the war.

That would certainly contribute to regime stability, but it is impossible to predict how long it will last. Something must give, argued Carl — either the regime or the people.

The regime might fall under ongoing cycles of mass protests. But it could also become even more repressive, turning into a Middle Eastern North Korea.

Alternatively, it might fracture into ethnic enclaves, much like Syria.

Carl said the reported Mossad plan to install former Iranian president Ahmadinejad as the leader of a new Iran is a bit far-fetched in terms of its chances for success.

On the US-Israel partnership, there are certainly new forces in American politics challenging the relationship, but both countries must recognize that they’re stronger together against actors like Iran.

In the meantime, he said, the war between the US and Iran “is going to keep on going until one side has outlasted the other.”

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

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