In wake of Iran framework deal, Saudis put on a brave face
Iran’s Arab allies are celebrating, but some regional powers likely to opt for self-reliance, Israeli expert says
Elhanan Miller is the former Arab affairs reporter for The Times of Israel
True, Arab leaders were always less vociferous than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the potential threat from Iran’s nuclear program. But followers of the Arab media could have easily missed the historic framework agreement reached between Iran and the superpowers on Thursday altogether.
It was the Houthi onslaught in Yemen, not the deal reached in Lausanne, that featured most prominently on the news and editorial pages of the main Arab dailies on Friday.
“The Saudis are in a state of shock,” said Uzi Rabi, head of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and an expert on the Persian Gulf. “They understand that this deal is a game-changer in favor of Iran, and are deeply concerned, but they’re not in the habit of crying over spilled milk.”
Saudi Arabia was putting on a brave face in its news coverage of the deal. “The agreement will prevent a nuclear Iran; Obama to reassure Gulf leaders in Camp David summit,” read the headline of Saudi-owned daily Asharq al-Awsat Friday. It quoted the telephone conversation between US President Barack Obama and King Salman on Thursday, in which the latter hoped for “a binding final agreement that will strengthen security and stability in the region and the world.”
Similarly, Saudi daily al-Watan’s headline read “Iran’s nuclear bomb dissipates,” reporting “cautious (American) optimism” regarding the end of Iran’s military nuclear program.
“It seems as though Iran’s dream of owning nuclear weapons has dissipated in the Swiss city of Lausanne yesterday, after the P5+1 reached a framework agreement with Tehran on its nuclear program, disabling it from producing a nuclear bomb,” the article read, adding that “anxiety prevailed in Arab and especially Gulf states, in light of Iran’s attempts to procure a nuclear weapon amid its continued intervention in their domestic affairs.”
Indeed, Iran’s involvement in armed conflicts in Arab countries such as Yemen, Syria and Iraq is a key issue ignored by the Lausanne deal, Rabi noted.
“No one denies the regional activities of the Revolutionary Guards. It’s quite remarkable how Iran managed to remove the issue from the table.”
According to Rabi, Middle Eastern states will react to the deal in various ways. Some will demand better American reassurances for their national security, while others — including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and possibly Egypt — may seek to go nuclear themselves.
Emirati friend commenting on Obama's nuclear deal with Iran: "I think it's great. Now we can all have nukes."
— سلطان سعود القاسمي (@SultanAlQassemi) April 3, 2015
“As far as the Saudis are concerned, the deal won’t just strengthen Iran in the long run; it already has strengthened it. It is perceived by the Saudis as a display of Iranian might and American weakness, which will only increase as time goes by,” he said.
Finding an Arab op-ed critical of the deal was virtually impossible on Friday, with Arabs seemingly opting for a “wait and see” policy. But Rabi said that Gulf states had no illusions about Iran’s nefarious intentions.
“The Gulf Arabs are now attempting to hold the US to its word, heavily quoting President Obama’s reassurances. They are trying to convince themselves and others that it will work.”
Meanwhile, the glee of Iran’s Arab allies was palpable on Friday.
“Iran has been recognized as a regional nuclear power,” celebrated an article in pro-Hezbollah Lebanese daily as-Safir. “The policy of containment toward the Islamic Republic has ended. The Iranian nuclear program was legitimized — even if slowed down by technical limitations and inspections for 10 years — after the original goal was to dismantle it.”
The sentiment of self-satisfaction could hardly be better articulated by the editor of the pro-Syrian Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, Ibrahim al-Amin, in an op-ed titled “A new world: The West capitulates.”
“Winners and losers. That’s how conflicts have ended across the world forever. Only those living with their eyes closed call outcomes compromises,” Amin wrote.
“What happened in Lausanne yesterday was the result of a ruthless confrontation that began with the fall of the Soviet Union, and left the West, led by the US, to govern the world unopposed and with no deterrent. The outcome of this confrontation was quite simple: The West capitulated!”
The Times of Israel Community.