From the Liveblog of
Friday, October 23, 2026
Final polls before election show both blocs short of majority, small parties out of Knesset
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The final polls published before Israel’s national election on Tuesday show continued gridlock, with neither the current coalition nor the so-called change bloc predicted to be able to form a government following the vote, and a number of small parties mostly falling below the electoral threshold.
Polls are not allowed to be published beginning tomorrow, until the exit polls are published the moment that voting stations close on Tuesday at 10 p.m.
A poll from Channel 13 predicts the “change bloc” of parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will receive 54 seats, and the parties loyal to the premier 50 seats, both falling short of the 61 necessary to form a government. The Arab parties will receive 16 seats, according to the poll.
Channel 13 predicts Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar will get 22 seats, Netanyahu’s Likud will get 19, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad will get 14 and the Democrats will receive 10. The poll shows Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party and Moti Leitner’s Charedi Public party all failing to cross the electoral threshold.
A poll from Channel 12 meanwhile predicts the change bloc will receive 56 seats, while the coalition will get 50 seats and the Joint List and Ra’am Arab-majority parties will together get 14 seats. The survey gives Yashar 23 seats, Likud 21, B’Yachad 15 and the Democrats 10.
While Ra’am chief Mansour Abbas has said he is open to joining the change bloc coalition, several of the parties in it have ruled out sitting with the party in a government.
The Channel 12 poll also shows Winter, Hendel and Leitner’s parties all falling short of entering the Knesset.
And a poll published by the Kan public broadcaster shows a similar outcome; however, it predicts that Hendel’s party will succeed in entering the Knesset with four seats. Hendel has not publicly committed to either bloc.
Therefore, the Kan poll predicts just 52 seats for the change bloc, 50 seats for the current coalition, 14 for the Arab parties and four for the Reservists faction.
Kan’s survey gives Yashar 22 seats, Likud 20, B’Yachad 14, the Joint List 9 and The Democrats 8. The poll shows Winter and Leitner falling below the threshold.
The Times of Israel Community.