New poll shows American Jews heavily favor Biden in potential rematch with Trump

By JTA 26 June 2023, 5:03 pm

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US President Joe Biden (L) speaks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on December 2, 2022; Former US president Donald Trump announces a third run for president as he speaks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 15, 2022. (Manuel Balce Ceneta, Rebecca Blackwell/AP)

WASHINGTON — Jewish voters would favor Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 50 percentage points in a 2024 general US presidential election matchup, according to a survey released today — a stark contrast from polls of the national electorate that predict a close race between the two leading candidates.

The survey of 800 registered Jewish voters, taken by the Jewish Electoral Institute, shows Biden leading Trump 72% to 22% among respondents. An NBC poll of registered voters nationally, released yesterday, gave Biden just a four-point lead over Trump, 49% to 45%.

The Jewish Electoral Institute, which is led by a board composed mostly of Jewish Democrats, commissioned GBAO Strategies to run the survey, which took place from June 4-11. It has a margin of error of 3.5%.

If the two men do face each other in the general election more than a year from now, and the survey results bear out, the Jewish vote will fall roughly along the same lines as it has for decades, with a solid majority of Jews voting for the Democratic candidate. In 2020, surveys showed anywhere between 60% to 77% of Jews voting for Biden over Trump, and a 2016 survey found that 71% of Jews voted for Hillary Clinton.

Today’s survey comes as Trump is widening his lead over rivals in the Republican primaries, commanding a 51% to 22% advantage over his nearest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, according to the same NBC poll. Trump’s lead is swelling even as he has twice been indicted this year, most recently on federal charges stemming from his alleged mishandling of sensitive government documents. The Jewish survey did not match Biden, who will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee, against other Republicans.

The exception in the poll is its small sampling of Orthodox Jews, who make up 9% of respondents; the vast majority say they support Trump. Surveys of Orthodox Jews ahead of the 2020 election also found that a majority planned to vote for Trump.

The survey finds that 63% of Jews overall view Biden favorably, versus 33% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, only 19% and 21%, respectively, view Trump and DeSantis favorably. Jewish voters view Biden much more favorably than do Americans overall, fewer than 40% of whom have a favorable view of the president, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.