Analysis

PM sees opportunity in Sinwar’s death. Does that mean escalation in fighting or a deal?

Netanyahu says Hamas leader’s demise is ‘the beginning of the end’ in Gaza, but it’s unclear who will now call the shots in hostage talks and whether a diplomatic push could work

Lazar Berman

Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter

IDF soldiers carry the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar from the building where he was killed in Rafah, Gaza on October 17, 2024. (Courtesy)
IDF soldiers carry the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar from the building where he was killed in Rafah, Gaza on October 17, 2024. (Courtesy)

The chance killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday represents “the beginning of the end” of the war in the Gaza Strip, claimed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It’s not entirely clear what he meant by the bold statement, but then again, it hasn’t been clear throughout the entire war how the IDF’s remarkable tactical successes can lead to the end of Hamas rule in Gaza, the disarming of its terror army and the return of the hostages.

The elimination of Hamas’s most dominant figure could open a small window of opportunity to achieve Israel’s elusive war aims, none of which have yet been secured. Senior US officials — including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken — both indicated that they see a chance to end the war in the near future, and many world leaders echoed that sentiment.

One question, though, is how much of an influence Sinwar had on Hamas’s operations at this stage. Gaza has been cut in two — or more — for most of the war, and Hamas cells have had to operate independently against IDF forces.

Still, seeing images of their leader lying amid the ruins of the territory he once ruled could demoralize those fighters still clinging to the desperate hope that he had a plan to get them out of the war alive and still in power. The lack of a rocket barrage in the wake of Sinwar’s death points to a force that is not acting as a cohesive organization in any way.

With a combination of strikes against commanders in the field and senior leaders in Beirut, Israel was able to create a window of opportunity against a confused and demoralized Hezbollah in Lebanon. But instead of rushing through that window with a campaign designed to take apart Hezbollah’s powerful military, Israel opted for a limited ground campaign against enemy infrastructure, not fighters.

And that window is now closing. Hezbollah is showing signs of regrouping, launching effective rocket and drone barrages and coherent ambushes against maneuvering IDF troops.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a video statement on the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 17, 2024. (Screen capture)

To exploit its advantage in Gaza while it still has the chance, the IDF would need to temporarily increase the military pressure on Hamas throughout the Strip, not just in Jabaliya where it has been recently operating. Unexpected military force in the wake of Sinwar’s death could at least push some remaining leaders to throw down their arms or try to flee to humanitarian zones under civilian guise.

A demoralized, leaderless Hamas also presents a temporary opportunity to set up someone else to distribute humanitarian aid, which Israel has said is a key element of undermining the organization’s civil rule of the Strip.

Palestinians sit near the site of an Israeli airstrike which allegedly sparked a fire in tents for displaced people in the courtyard of Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on October 16, 2024. (Eyad Baba / AFP)

Regarding the hostages that Hamas seized during its October 7 attack that triggered the war, the death of Sinwar seems to open up opportunities as well.

For months, US and Israeli officials have expressed their frustration with Sinwar’s unwillingness to budge on his core demands. Earlier this week, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that even attempts at small confidence-building agreements with Hamas were invariably torpedoed by him.

There are, however, new potential challenges in reaching a hostage deal.

It wasn’t ever clear that Sinwar himself would have been able to gather all the hostages in Gaza even if he wanted a deal; a successor with less credibility and power would find it even harder to do so.

And there won’t necessarily be one successor. Divided geographically for almost a year, Hamas could devolve into militias run by local commanders, each holding several hostages and offering their own set of demands. While that would offer a chance to release some hostages in smaller deals, such a dynamic would make a comprehensive agreement next to impossible.

Demonstrators call for the release of the hostages held in the Gaza Strip at a protest outside the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv, October 17, 2024, soon after Israel confirmed the killing by the IDF in Gaza of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

With allies abroad clearly eager to find a way to end the fighting before it expands further, Netanyahu could opt for a grand deal now, linking Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Rain will start turning Lebanon’s soil into mud soon, making IDF ground maneuvers much more difficult. Bogged-down Israeli armor will make tempting targets for Hezbollah, as it tries to restore its reputation after suffering devastating blows.

Israel also hasn’t responded yet to Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier this month, something the White House is working hard to limit.

Through the US, Netanyahu could send a message to Iran that it will minimize its response if Hezbollah agrees to Israel’s terms in Lebanon and Hamas capitulates in Gaza. Iran has already lost any deterrent against Israel in Hamas, and, from Tehran’s vantage point, a diplomatic solution in Lebanon would ensure that its top proxy Hezbollah survives the current round and has an opportunity to start rebuilding.

US President Joe Biden, right, clasps the hand of his vice president, Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, August 19, 2024. (AP/Jacquelyn Martin)

Such a deal would also serve the Biden administration’s interests, preventing a further expansion of the war — and possible rise in oil prices — ahead of an election that looks increasingly precarious. Vice President Kamala Harris would be able to tell supporters of Israel that she stood by America’s ally for a year while it achieved its war aims, and tell Muslim and Arab voters in Michigan that she and Biden were instrumental in ending the war.

Netanyahu, however, is riding a hot streak, and looks increasingly vindicated in his determination to continue fighting in Gaza and to finally escalate against Hezbollah. Will he seek to leverage international support for an end to the war to achieve Israel’s war aims, or will he double down on military pressure — an approach that has been paying dividends of late?

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