If Israelis were to head to the polls today, Likud and Yesh Atid would both strengthen their positions at the expense of their smaller partners, but the country would again see no conclusive winner, according to a Channel 13 survey published Monday.
The current coalition, which brought together a diverse group of right-wing, centrist, and left-wing Zionist parties and the Islamist Ra’am party, would lose its razor-thin majority in the 120 seat Knesset, dipping to 59 seats, the poll found.
However, the Likud-led alliance of right-wing and religious parties would also not be able to form a government, with 54 seats.
The mostly Arab Joint List alliance would get the other seven seats, the same number it currently holds.
Likud would retain its status as the largest party and would receive 34 seats, up from the 30 it won in the last election, according to the poll.
However, it appears that much of its increase in support would come at the expense of its key ally Shas, which would dip to from nine to six seats.
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism remains steady at seven seats, while the far-right Religious Zionists is up one from six to seven seats.
Among coalition parties, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is forecast to rise to 22 seats, up from its current 17. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Yamina would again win seven seats, the poll said. It lost one in the current Knesset when a lawmaker defected.
Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu drops from seven to five seats. The other right-wing party in the coalition, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope — made up mostly of Likud defectors — would receive only four seats, down from six.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White drops from eight to seven seats; Labor, under Merav Michaeli, loses one of its seven seats, while the left-wing Meretz falls from six to four.
The Islamist Ra’am party, which made history by being the first Arab party to sit as a vital component in a governing coalition, remains steady at four seats.
Israel’s March election was the fourth in under two years, amid an unprecedented political crisis that failed to produce a government after the first two votes in 2019 and yielded a short-lived unity government after the third in 2020.
The unusual coalition that eventually emerged was largely seen as aimed at ending Benjamin Netanyahu’s decade in power, amid his trial on corruption charges.
The Channel 13 survey was conducted by Kamil Fuchs and involved a sample of 699 people. It had a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.