US intel assessment before war said assault on Iran unlikely to topple regime — report

A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council reportedly warned that the Iranian regime was unlikely to be toppled even by an extensive assault, and was “unlikely” to lead to the country’s opposition taking power.

The intelligence assessment, reported in the Washington Post and confirmed by three people familiar with its contents, was completed around a week before Israel and the US launched their attack on the Islamic Republic a week ago, on February 28. It outlined scenarios in which the Iranian regime was hit with small- and large-scale assaults.

The report is being revealed as US President Donald Trump has insisted that he be involved in the selection of Iran’s next leader, after former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the campaign’s first day. An Israeli airstrike earlier in the week hit the building of a body tasked with electing Iran’s new leader.

Trump has rejected the notion of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, taking his father’s place, with the US president calling him “unacceptable.” On Thursday, Trump told NBC News, “We want to go in and clean out everything.”

He has also likened his involvement to US influence over Venezuela’s government after Trump ordered the seizure of its president, Nicolas Maduro, earlier this year.

The report was composed by the US National Intelligence Council, which is composed of veterans of the intelligence community and represents the collective view of the country’s intelligence agencies.

The Post said the White House would not comment on whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before launching the assault.

“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly in a statement, according to the Post. “The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.”

The US-Israeli campaign came after Trump had previously threatened to attack Iran over its deadly crackdown on mass anti-regime protests. According to human rights groups, thousands of demonstrators were killed by Iranian forces, with some saying the true toll is in the tens of thousands.

Both Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have called on opponents of the regime to take advantage of the opportunity afforded by the US-Israeli campaign. Israel  though Trump has also called on demonstrators to stay home amid the strikes.

However, the NIC report was said to conclude that, upon Khamenei’s death, regime protocols would be followed to ensure the regime’s survival. The report said it would be “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would take control, according to the Post.

The newspaper said the intelligence report did not appear to examine other scenarios, including a potential ground operation by US troops or an offensive by Kurdish militias, amid reports that Washington was encouraging such action.

Trump has privately expressed interest in deploying ground forces to Iran, according to NBC News, with sources saying the president hasn’t discussed a major ground offensive in Iran but instead sending a small group of US forces to carry out missions the report describes as having specific strategic purposes. The sources add that Trump hasn’t yet made any decision on the matter.

He has also said unconditional surrender in the war against Iran could mean the destruction of the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities and not necessarily a formal capitulation by Tehran.

Iran has so far launched over 500 ballistic and cruise missiles and over 2,000 drones at Israel and across the region since the start of the war, a military source told the Iranian Fars news agency on Thursday, numbers that could not be confirmed.

Military chiefs in Israel and the US said Thursday that the countries’ airstrikes had notched major successes in taking out Iran’s missile threat and warned that the offensive was set to intensify in the coming days.