AnalysisOn the line: Israel's security, Netanyahu's legacy

With DC invite, Netanyahu already has huge win. Now he has to convince Trump on Gaza plan

US president once blasted Israeli premier as ungrateful, but is hosting him before other leaders. If PM gets this week right he can set stage to achieve goals on Hamas, Saudis, Iran

Lazar Berman

Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boards the Wing of Zion plane at Ben Gurion Airport ahead of a trip to the United States, February 2, 2025. (Avi Ohayon/GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boards the Wing of Zion plane at Ben Gurion Airport ahead of a trip to the United States, February 2, 2025. (Avi Ohayon/GPO)

WASHINGTON, DC  — Only three years ago, Donald Trump – then a rather disgraced ex-president — shared his views of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, someone with whom he had been quite close during his first term.

“F*ck him,” Trump told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, angry that Netanyahu had called Joe Biden to congratulate him on his victory over Trump.

“Bibi could have stayed quiet,” Trump fumed. “He has made a terrible mistake.”

The president is a figure who famously holds grudges, and many wondered whether Trump, in his second term – armed now with four years of experience, a Republican Congress, and an unequivocal mandate to govern – would exact his revenge on Netanyahu.

The Israeli prime minister is certainly vulnerable. Even before the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for him, Netanyahu was no longer the welcome guest in Western capitals he had been before October 7, 2023. Back home, his coalition could crack along multiple fissures. His right flank criticizes a hostage deal it sees as surrender to Hamas, and his Haredi allies demand a draft law that ensures most of their young men will continue to avoid military service.

On top of his political pressures, Netanyahu’s health is likely worse than his office is letting on. Little more than a month ago, the 75-year-old had his prostate removed. In 2023, Netanyahu was fitted with a pacemaker, a week after being hospitalized for dehydration.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks from Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, where he is hospitalized, and says he feels ‘very good,’ July 15. 2023. (Screenshot: Channel 12)

The signs of physical strain are evident. Netanyahu continues to work around the clock, and holds critical meetings late into the night. But as he emerged from his limousine early Sunday morning to address reporters before boarding Wing of Zion, his steps were stiff, and his eyes were puffy.

The medical contingent traveling to Washington has been beefed up as well. In addition to his personal doctor, a urologist and a cardiologist were on the plane to keep a close eye on the septuagenarian.

US President Donald Trump (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands at the Israel Museum in Jerusalem, May 23, 2017. (AP Photo/ Sebastian Scheiner, File)

But even as Trump humiliates world leaders who cross him, the president is not looking to punish Netanyahu. Quite the opposite.

Trump has rewarded his one-time ally with a visit to the White House, the first foreign leader to meet with the US president since his inauguration.

The return to Trump’s good graces is a testament to Netanyahu’s diplomatic acumen. Senior aides tell The Times of Israel that the road back took months of concerted effort, and that Netanyahu’s July visit to Mar-A-Lago was the confirmation that the work had finally paid off.

The fact that Netanyahu is the first foreign leader Trump invited to the White House is more than a personal win for Netanyahu. It smooths the way for Netanyahu’s sweeping plans in the region.

Since then, regular conversations between the two leaders and between their senior advisers have built a solid foundation on which to coordinate efforts against Hamas, Iran, and other mutual adversaries in the region.

The fact that Netanyahu is the first foreign leader Trump invited to the White House is more than a personal win for Netanyahu. It smooths the way for Netanyahu’s sweeping plans in the region. Israel’s Arab partners, and potential allies like Saudi Arabia, are sure to take note that a reliable and direct line to Trump’s ear runs via Netanyahu.

Palestinians chase humanitarian aid trucks that arrived through the Kerem Shalom crossing into the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, January 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

Erstwhile friends in Europe — and openly hostile leaders like Erdogan in Turkey — smelled blood over the past 15 months as the Biden administration repeatedly hammered Israel for ostensibly blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza and even for the “indiscriminate bombing” of the Strip. European weapons shipments were held up, calls were sounded for ceasefires that would leave Hamas in power, and promises were made to arrest Netanyahu if he landed in their territory.

With Trump firmly in Netanyahu’s corner, the pressure on Netanyahu and on Israel is sure to slacken. The experience of Ireland is a clear enough warning. After repeated and obsessive criticisms of Israel from Irish leaders, Jerusalem announced it would shutter its embassy in Dublin. The very next day, Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, blasted Ireland in interviews and on X for its corporate tax policies “at our expense.”

Howard Lutnick speaks before Republican presidential nominee and then-former US president Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, October 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

On Sunday, with Netanyahu landing in Washington, Trump announced he was cutting off all future funding to South Africa, pending an investigation into land confiscation policies. South Africa, backed by Ireland, is leading the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

Israel’s enemies are sure to be following the trip no less closely.

Iran is as vulnerable as it has been since the Islamic Revolution. Israel has done what it wanted against Hezbollah, Iran’s deterrent against an Israeli attack on its nuclear program. Tehran was helpless as Sunni rebels in pickup trucks pushed down from Idlib to topple the Assad regime.

Two massive Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel damaged some air force runways and killed a Palestinian man, but were handily repulsed by Israel, the US, and an impressive alliance of Western and Arab militaries. In response, Iran lost its most advanced air defense batteries, and the path for Israeli jets to Arak, Natanz, and Fordow lies open.

A replica of Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant at an exhibition at the International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Isfahan in on May 6, 2024. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

The restored trust between the Trump and Netanyahu administrations is the latest development in the long parade of horrors for Iran since October 7. The two leaders will spend much of their time together discussing how to confront Iran and its proxies, and Tehran has few options for getting in the way of whatever they come up with.

The ways to the second phase

Nonetheless, the potential for serious disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu hovers over the visit.

The president demanded a hostage release deal months ago, and both Israel and Hamas complied. But Trump also wants to see the end of the war in Gaza, while Netanyahu insists that Israeli troops will not leave the Strip until all of Israel’s demands are met, including the end of Hamas’s rule of Gaza and its military organization.

Protesters on behalf of the hostages held by terrorists in Gaza urge US President Donald Trump to see the current ceasefire deal through to the end, on Begin Road in Tel Aviv, February 1, 2025. (Gilad Furst/Pro-Democracy Protest Movement)

The only way Hamas will agree to move to the second phase of the hostage deal and release the military-age male hostages is if it is confident beyond any doubt that Israel will not restart the military campaign.

This reality puts Netanyahu in an uncomfortable position. He cannot be seen by Trump as the party responsible for the deal falling apart, but is not about to leave Hamas in power and let the terror organization win the war.

His work is cut out for him. He will have to convince Trump that Israel’s demands for moving to the second stage – likely exile for Hamas commanders in Gaza and the organization agreeing to disarm – are entirely reasonable, and that if Hamas rejects them, it is to blame for the deal falling apart.

Hamas gunmen ride Toyota pick-up trucks through Gaza City ahead of the release of Israeli hostages on February 1, 2025. (Reuters screenshot)

Were that to happen, Israel would be set for a massive return to the military campaign against Hamas, this time with the backing of a US president who would not be trying to keep progressives on board, ahead of an election and who has not shown much interest in the level of humanitarian aid going into Gaza.

Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel that a renewed military campaign would be more aggressive than the plodding ground maneuver that the IDF carried out at the height of the military effort against Hamas.

Trump has shown that he cares about the broad contours of his initiatives, and not the fine details. He wanted a hostage deal, and was happy to adopt the plan his predecessor Joe Biden presented, rather than starting from scratch on his own. Netanyahu will have to present Israel’s position, and the threat of renewed fighting, in black-and-white terms that fit into Trump’s interests on the international stage.

Hamas gunmen flank Israeli hostage Yarden Bibas on a stage before handing him over to a Red Cross team in Khan Yunis on February 1, 2025, as part of a hostage release-ceasefire deal. (Eyad BABA / AFP)

A senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel that one of the key goals of Netanyahu’s visit is to create, with the Trump administration, an agreed upon outline for the conditions for and path to the second stage of the hostage deal. Washington would then communicate it to Egypt and Qatar, who would present it to Hamas. Israel expects to fill in the details after the outline is set.

Faced with Israeli demands it cannot accept and a renewed Israeli attack it is desperate to avoid, Hamas could well look to try to stretch the first stage as long as possible until it figures out a way to prevent Netanyahu from ordering troops back in. That option would serve Israel’s interests – more hostages released with no commitment to permanently end the war.

Netanyahu’s Saudi mission on Capitol Hill

Despite the potential for tension over Gaza, the interests of Trump and Netanyahu do align on another pivotal issue.

The president wants to usher in the glittering prize of Arab-Israeli peace efforts, one that Biden proved incapable of achieving. A Saudi-Israel normalization deal would put Trump in position to win a Nobel Peace Prize, something that he has been after for years.

“I got elected in a much bigger, better, crazier election, but they gave [Obama] the Nobel Prize,” Trump griped in October.

L: US President Donald Trump, January 23, 2025. (Roberto Schmidt / AFP), R: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, December 3, 2024. (Saudi Ministry of Media / AFP)

Netanyahu, for his part, sees diplomatic ties with Riyadh as the culmination of Israel’s long efforts to achieve a secure place in the region, and an indispensable component of a lasting regional alliance against Iran.

Here Netanyahu can go to bat for Trump. In order to secure the normalization deal, Washington will have to offer the Saudis a defense treaty, ratified by two-thirds of the Senate. Under Biden, the Democrats would have voted for such a pact, but concerns over human rights abuses and a disinclination to give historic wins to figures like Trump and Netanyahu make passage of such a treaty uncertain now.

The US Capitol is seen in Washington, DC, on December 20, 2024. (Richard PIERRIN / AFP/File)

Netanyahu will be on Capitol Hill on Thursday, and will meet powerful Democrats. He will have to use the same skills that enabled him to return to Trump’s good graces in order to convince enough Democrats to back the treaty that will enable Saudi-Israeli recognition.

If the convalescing prime minister can convince Trump this week to hitch his foreign policy to Israel’s vision for Gaza, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu has a real chance of finally becoming the leader that ensures Israel’s long-term security. If he mishandles the fateful meetings over the coming days, his own legacy — and the well-being of his country — will be in serious doubt.

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