More than mere revenge

Israel has been using what might be called a three-pronged approach to smothering Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

The country’s leaders have pushed for sanctions against Iran, hoping to both foment uprising and, at the very least, scare the regime into believing that it will be one or the other: the continued development of its nuclear program or the continuation of its reign. They have made clear that somewhere in the foggy distance lies a red line that, if crossed, will bring an Israeli strike and at least some form of war. And they have allegedly, as Israel has done several times in the past, begun waging a war of attrition against all involved in the nuclear program, thinning the ranks of nuclear experts and, more crucially, seeding fear among them.

That final element of deterrence may have been bruised by Monday’s twin attacks in Tbilisi and New Delhi and the Tuesday attack in Bangkok.

Tuesday’s botched plot involved Iranian citizens. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid the blame for Monday’s attacks on Iran and Hezbollah.

Ephraim Kam, a former colonel in the IDF’s military intelligence branch and the deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies, confirmed Tuesday that the two often work together, with Iran supplying arms through diplomatic mail pouches and assisting with intelligence gathering, and Hezbollah doing the dirty work of actually killing innocents on foreign soil. But the two groups, he said, had different motives in this case, with Hezbollah seeking revenge for the assassination fours year ago of its leader, Imad Mughniyeh, while for Iran “this may be an attempt to achieve deterrence.”

The message, stripped of much of its potency through incompetence, was still likely received by Israel, Kam said, and would certainly have to be taken into account when weighing future operations against Iranian officials and scientists. “If Iran feels the message has been received, it might stop,” he said of the attacks.

Terror experts often speak of “a balance of fear.” The calculus is ugly and complex, with diplomats costing more than civilians and Europe and the United States being more sensitive than Asia and the former Soviet Union states. And it works both ways. After the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Abbas Musawi, Israel did not assassinate a single high ranking Hezbollah official until February 2008 when, according to foreign reports, Israeli agents killed Imad Mughniyeh.

Of course Israeli military and intelligence officials would be loath to admit that they had been deterred by a band of terrorists, but the facts speak for themselves.

That said, Iran, if in fact it is behind this recent spate of attacks, has been displaying an astonishing, perplexing ineptitude. The man allegedly hired to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington in October was an Iranian-American used car salesman who, according to US Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr., attempted to hire assassins from a Mexican drug cartel. Instead he wound up speaking to US narcotic agents. The plots in Turkey, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Georgia and India seem, at least thus far, to be of a similar caliber.