New polls show UK’s Labour trouncing Conservatives in July 4 elections
Tories under PM Rishi Sunak heading for poorest result in 200 years; rival Keir Starmer forecast to lead Labour to best ever victory, with up to 516 of 650 seats in Westminster
LONDON — Two polls published on Wednesday found the UK’s Labour party was set to win a record-breaking number of seats and the incumbent Conservatives due for a historic drubbing in next month’s general election.
With voters heading to the polls in just over two weeks, the latest pair of nationwide surveys — by YouGov and Savanta/Electoral Calculus — showed Labour set to win either 425 or 516 out of 650 seats.
Either of the results would be the current opposition party’s best-ever return of MPs in a general election.
Meanwhile, the twin polls showed support for the Tories — in power since 2010 — plummeting to unprecedented lows, with one estimating they would win just 53 seats.
The Savanta and Electoral Calculus survey for the Daily Telegraph newspaper predicted Rishi Sunak would become the first sitting UK prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.
The poll, which forecasts three-quarters of Sunak’s cabinet also losing their seats, predicted Labour grabbing a majority of 382 seats over the Conservatives — more than double the advantage enjoyed by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997.
It also showed the centrist Liberal Democrats just three seats behind the Tories with 50, and the Scottish National Party losing dozens of seats north of the English border.
Many voters have told pollsters their main motivation is to get rid of the Conservatives, in power for 14 years during a period of political and economic turmoil.
Record Tory defeat?
The YouGov survey predicted Sunak’s party would win in just 108 constituencies.
That was a drop of 32 on its prediction from two weeks ago, reflecting how badly the Conservatives’ election campaign is perceived to have gone.
The 108 seats the Tories are predicted to win in the poll would still be their lowest number in the party’s near 200-year history of contesting UK elections.
Sunak is widely seen as having run a lacklustre and error-strewn campaign, including facing near-universal criticism earlier this month for leaving early from D-Day commemoration events in France.
In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer, set to become prime minister if his party prevails on July 4, has sought to play it safe and protect his party’s poll leads.
Starmer, who has pledged not to raise the main taxes paid by working people, has sought to push back on any suggestion that a Labour government could have an immediate big impact on issues like the cost of living and standard of public services.
“There’s no magic wand that we can wave the day after the election and fix all the country’s problems. And nobody would believe us if we said there is,” he told ITV’s Peston program on Thursday.
Sunak’s Conservatives have sought to turn the spotlight onto tax, saying a Labour government would cost households more.
However, the tax bill is already at a 70-year high and will continue to rise even if the Conservatives win because both parties have pledged to freeze tax thresholds.
Conservative heavyweight Michael Gove, who is standing down at the election, said the poll that mattered was on July 4.
“You can look at the opinion polls … but this election is not an election between Savanta and YouGov, it is between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, and there’s therefore a choice of policies,” he told Sky News.
Sunak, Starmer and other leaders will face questions from an audience of voters on the BBC later on Thursday.
YouGov also found anti-EU populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party on course to win five seats, including in the Clacton constituency in eastern England where the Brexit figurehead is standing.
Farage has said he will attempt to coopt what remains of the Conservative party if he is elected and it fares poorly on July 4.
