Netanyahu’s speech won’t reset US-Israel relations

Even aside from the political turmoil in the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech before the joint session of the US Congress came at a charged moment. The war in Gaza is in its tenth month and Hamas still holds 120 hostages (of whom about half are still thought to be alive). A genocide case against Israel is playing out in the International Court of Justice and Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu himself, have been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. Among members of the US Congress – long Israel’s most ardent bastion of support – opposition to supplying military aid has gained some momentum on both sides of the aisle.

Israel’s standing in the court of American public opinion has also deteriorated. According to Gallup polls, between 2023 and 2024, overall favorability toward Israel dropped from 68% to 58%. Among Democratic voters, it fell below the halfway mark; among 18-34-year-olds, it plummeted from 64% to 38%. Given these trends, it is unsurprising that Israel has emerged as a divisive issue in the US presidential election.

American Jews have mostly stuck by Israel throughout the war, expressing strong support in opinion surveys, donating more than a billion dollars, and initially joining in vigils and the largest mass demonstration ever called by Jewish organizations, as we report in a new INSS study. This wartime solidarity, however, covers up deep cracks in American Jewish support for Israel, cracks that widened after the formation of the “full, full right-wing” government featuring Itamar Ben Gvir, and resurfaced as the war evolved.

On the most critical issues…, Netanyahu could not break free of the policies of his government.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu had a chance to reset the US-Israel relationship and restore confidence among Democrats and American Jews that Israel’s commitments are aligned with their own. Instead, he delivered a speech that is unlikely to transcend the divides.

As expected, Netanyahu devoted much of the speech to establishing Israel’s common cause with the United States against Iran and its allied militias. “Iran understands that to truly challenge America, it must first conquer the Middle East,” Netanyahu explained. But standing in Iran’s way, protecting the United States, is the State of Israel. “Our enemies are your enemies, our fight is your fight, and our victory will be your victory,” he proclaimed.

He also repeated commitments he has made in the past that address some of the Biden administration’s concerns. He stated that Israel would not seek to resettle Gaza, and that he envisions civilian rule by “Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel.” He also called for formation of the “Abraham Alliance” against the Iranian threat. Building on the Abraham Accords, the regional pact would include countries “at peace with Israel” and countries – presumably Saudi Arabia – that “will make peace with Israel.”

On the most critical issues, though, Netanyahu could not break free of the policies of his government. He repeated his vow to prosecute the war against Hamas until “total victory” is achieved, staking out the hard line that Israel’s minister of defense and top army officials have said is the main obstacle to a deal that would release the remaining hostages and bring the war in Gaza and the North to a close.

He vowed open-ended security control over Gaza and said nothing about the participation of the Palestinian Authority in its rule. Most tellingly, he said not a word about the possibility of a diplomatic process with the Palestinians toward a future in which Israel does not militarily control all of the West Bank and Gaza and the millions of Palestinians who live there.

These positions make the vision of an Abraham Alliance into a pipe dream. As President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have repeatedly stressed, a regional accord and participation of Arab states in the reconstruction of Gaza will only happen with Israel’s commitment to a diplomatic process with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu has of course supported a two-state solution in the past. As a diplomatic goal, it is almost universally supported among Democratic and Republican political leaders. Among the American public, in a major study a few months ago, 40% favored two-states compared to just 14% who favored one state governed by Israel and 13% one state jointly governed. Among American Jews, the tilt toward two states was even more decisive.

The failure to countenance a political process with the Palestinians is hardly surprising. Just last week, the Knesset voted 68-9 against negotiations toward the formation of a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu took a different tack on Capitol Hill, it would surely cost him his government.

But the vision Netanyahu conjured of the Abraham Alliance will not come to fruition in the absence of a diplomatic process with the Palestinians. And growing antagonism toward Israel among many Democrats and many American Jews will not be stemmed.

This is bad news for Israel’s national security as it would benefit a great deal from normalization with Saudi Arabia and the formalization of the alliance that foiled Iran’s massive attack on April 14. Such an alliance becomes even more crucial as Iran approaches the nuclear threshold.

Maintaining bipartisan support in the US government is also a supreme strategic interest for Israel. So too is the support of the American public and the American Jewish community.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is unwilling to lead in a way that secures these vital interests. The Israeli public is demanding new elections in any case. A more moderate political realignment is possible, with or without Netanyahu at the helm. Let us hope the day comes soon.

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Ted Sasson is Ruderman Family Foundation Scholar in Residence at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and professor of Jewish studies at Middlebury College. He is the author of “The New American Zionism.”

Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel is a senior fellow at INSS and the author of “Israeli National Security: A New Strategy For an Era of Change” and “Israel and the Cyber Threat: How The Startup Nation Became a Global Cyber Power”.