US races to keep tensions from snowballing as Israel girds for expected Iranian attack
CENTCOM chief visits in strong show of support for Israel, as report suggests Russia supplying Tehran with air defense upgrades; Blinken speaks to Qatari, Egyptian counterparts
A top American general visited Israel in a weighty show of support for Jerusalem Monday and US diplomats were furiously scrambling in hopes of curtailing the fallout from an expected Iranian reprisal attack following a series of high-profile assassinations.
US President Joe Biden was briefed alongside Vice President Kamala Harris regarding Iranian threats since a suspected Israeli attack that killed the Hamas terrorist organization’s leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with top Middle Eastern officials on both the Iran crisis and ending Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza after nearly 10 months.
A ceasefire “will unlock possibilities for more enduring calm, not only in Gaza itself, but in other areas where the conflict could spread,” Blinken said as he met Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong.
Iran says Israel must be “punished” for Haniyeh’s assassination and has vowed to take action, raising worries that its response could bring the restive Middle East closer to all-out war. Iranian proxy terrorist group Hezbollah has also threatened to hit Israel following the assassination of its military leader Fuad Shukr in an attack near Beirut last week.
With Israel and much of the region holding its breath as it waits to see what Iran and Hezbollah will do, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said late Monday there were still no changes to emergency guidelines for civilians.
“We have our finger on the pulse constantly, and if there is a change we will inform you immediately,” Hagari said on X.
Flying into the maelstrom Monday was United States Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, who met with Israel’s top military brass. A photo of Kurilla and his staff holding a summit with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and his staff served as a potent illustration of an alliance that US officials have made pains to describe as steadfast.
In a meeting between Kurilla, Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the three discussed “the coordination of defense cooperation between the respective establishments and militaries,” Israel’s Defense Ministry said. “They also discussed ways to expand the international coalition facing aggressive activities by Iran and its proxies against Israel, and destabilizing the Middle East region.”
Kurilla arrived hours before US forces stationed at an airbase in Iraq came under missile attack from a suspected Iranian proxy militia. Five US personnel were injured, including one seriously, US officials said, and the White House warned a response would be carried out “in a manner and place of our choosing.”
In Washington, Biden spoke on the phone with King Abdullah II of Jordan, whose country helped down hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles launched at Israel in April, though no discussion of Iranian tensions was mentioned in a US statement on the call.
The discussion came days after Egypt informed a high-level Israeli delegation that visited Cairo on Saturday that it would not take part in a regional military coalition to repel a potential Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel, the Qatari-owned news outlet al-Araby al-Jadeed reported.
On Sunday, Jordan’s top diplomat Ayman Safadi visited Iran for talks, becoming the first senior Jordanian official to make a state trip to Iran in over 20 years.
US: Very much not in Iran’s interest to attack
The US, which does not have diplomatic ties with Iran, was also urging other countries to pass Iran a message from Washington advising against escalation, the State Department said.
“One of the points of the engagements that we have had is to urge countries to pass messages to Iran and urge countries to make clear to Iran that it is very much not in their interests to escalate this conflict, that it is very much not in their interest to launch another attack on Israel,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.
Miller, speaking at a press briefing, did not say definitively whether or not Washington’s messages have been disseminated to Iran or through which channel.
“I would expect that some of them would pass that message along and impress that point upon the government of Iran,” he added.
Blinken also spoke Monday with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
“We are engaged in intense diplomacy, pretty much around the clock, with a very simple message — all parties must refrain from escalation,” Blinken said during a press conference alongside Wong.
“It’s also critical that we break this cycle by reaching a ceasefire in Gaza,” added Blinken, who has also spoken since Sunday with G7 counterparts and Iraq’s prime minister.
National Security officers briefing Biden and Harris on Mideast tensions told them that it is still unclear when Iran may take action against Israel, and what form the retaliatory attack may take, a US official said late Monday. That came after the Washington Post reported earlier that the Biden administration had told lawmakers that an attack could come as early as Monday or Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Blinken told counterparts from Group of 7 countries Sunday that an attack could come within 48 hours.
Hezbollah could attack first
Israeli military officials were also largely in the dark regarding what Iran was planning, Israel’s Channel 13 news reported. Nonetheless, authorities surmise that Iran will allow Hezbollah to attack first and wait to see what the fallout is before deciding on its own reprisal, the channel reported without citing a source.
According to the report, Israeli officials believe Hezbollah will focus on military targets, but could also endanger civilians.
The IDF said Monday that Halevi approved plans for “different scenarios” regarding fighting in northern Israel, following an assessment attended by the deputy chief of staff, head of the Intelligence and Operations directorates, head of the Northern Command, head of the Air Force, head of the Home Front Command, and other top officers.
The IDF and Hezbollah continued to trade fire throughout the day Monday, as they have the last 10 months. The military said late Monday that it killed a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit in a drone strike, and that Hezbollah had fired several drones at northern Israel, one of which was intercepted. No injuries were reported.
Iran says it needs to ‘punish’ Israel
Iran, for its part, insisted Monday that it is not looking to escalate regional tensions, but believes it needs to “punish” Israel to prevent further instability.
“Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Monday, adding that action from Tehran is inevitable.
The country’s Foreign Ministry also called in ambassadors and heads of missions residing in Tehran for a meeting with acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani on Monday to reiterate Iran’s will to respond to Israel.
The country’s recently sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian met Monday with Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s security council and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as the two sought to strengthen bilateral ties.
“Russia is among the countries that have stood by the Iranian nation during difficult times,” Pezeshkian told Shoigu in a meeting, Iranian state media reported.
According to the New York Times, Russia has begun delivering advanced air defense equipment and radars to Iran in response to a request for help from Tehran.
On Wednesday, Iran is slated to convene an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to discuss its response to Haniyeh’s killing.
According to The Guardian, at the meeting, Tehran will seek to collect Arab support as it plans retribution against Israel.
In Iran, lawmaker Mohammad Qasim Osmani said Haniyeh’s death should be avenged by killing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“We do not agree to anything less than Netanyahu’s death,” he said, according to the Russian TASS news agency, which cited Iran’s IRIB TV.
Israel was “impudent” for daring to “shed the blood of a guest in Tehran,” he added,
Hamas leader Haniyeh, who was in Tehran to attend the ceremony, died in an explosion that Iranian authorities have said was caused by a short-range projectile. Israel has not commented on the killing, but is widely thought to have been behind it.
While tensions ramped up considerably following the assassination of Shukr and Haniyeh, the region has already been in turmoil since October 7, when Hamas launched an unprecedented cross-border attack on Israel in which terrorists killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, sparking the ongoing war in Gaza. One hundred and eleven hostages are still held in Gaza; the IDF has said 39 of them are dead.
