IDF, Shin Bet note decrease in violence in December

Though Israelis remain on edge as the hunt for the prime suspect in the Tel Aviv shooting continues, the country’s security forces released data with potentially good indications for the future on Thursday, showing that the number of Palestinian attacks in December dropped considerably in comparison to previous months.

The current round of violence hit its peak in October, with some 620 attacks, according to the Shin Bet. The vast majority of these were incidents of Molotov cocktails being thrown at cars and during violent protests. In November that figure came down to 326, and last month it went down even further, to 246, a 24.5 percent reduction, the Shin Bet revealed in a statement.

Within the Palestinian communities of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the number of attacks as well as the number of violent demonstrations has gone down, a senior IDF officer said.

While much of the early violence involved terrorists targeting civilians, most recent assaults have been against soldiers and police, the military official said, explaining that this was a good sign as well.

“It took us some time to figure out what to do,” the officer admitted. “But we’re protecting civilian targets better now.”

The official, who asked not to be mentioned by name, acknowledged that while security forces were now better prepared, there was another possible reason for the decrease in December: “Maybe the Palestinian population is just getting tired.”

Whatever the reason for the drop in attacks, the decline also led to a significant reduction in the number of Israeli casualties in December.

In November, 10 civilians died, five of them on one day, and another 58 people were injured in shooting, stabbing and car ramming terror attacks.

In December, three civilians died, one near the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron and two in a Jaffa Gate stabbing, while 44 people were injured, a decrease of more than 30%.

The number of violent protests and the so-called “popular terrorism” of stone-throwing and Molotov cocktail attacks in and around the cities of the West Bank has gone down as well, the officer said.

“There had been an increase in the rocks and firebombs and riots, but that too is going down,” he said. “It’s not approaching zero, but it’s approaching where it was in April-May.”

As an example, the officer offered, this year’s olive harvest went off nearly without a hitch.

In some years, the annual harvest is canceled due to security concerns, but this fall, despite the ongoing “limited uprising,” as the army refers to the current situation, the harvest was held as usual.

The question, however, is whether this reduction of violence in the month of December signifies a “light at the end of the tunnel” or a calm before the storm.

Will it do something in the field? Yes. Will it lead to something worse? I don’t know.’

The Duma terror attack and general problem of Jewish terrorism in the West Bank has become one of the central rallying cries of this ongoing limited uprising, along with the accusations that Israel seeks to change the status quo on the Temple Mount, the officer said.

While one suspect has already been charged in the murder of the Dawabsha family in July, the outcome of that trial could have a tremendous impact on the security situation in the West Bank, as could a fresh attack on Palestinian civilians.

If Amiram Ben-Uliel, the prime suspect in the Duma firebombing, were to be cleared, it would undoubtedly cause a stir in the West Bank and could potentially set off a greater uprising than what Israel has experienced thus far, he noted.

“Would it do something in the field? Yes. Would it lead to something worse? I don’t know,” the officer said.

Another terror attack against Palestinians could also set the West Bank on a renewed round of violence, the IDF official said.

“If there was just one incident of Jewish terror, then it could all come back,” the officer said.

On that front, however, there are also some glimmers of deescalation.

Within the Jewish communities of the West Bank, the number of nationalistic attacks against Palestinians has also come down in recent months, the military official said.

According to the Shin Bet, there was only one major act of Jewish aggression in December, when a group of Jewish extremists allegedly tossed two smoke grenades into a Palestinian home near Ramallah. No one was injured in that attack.

As always, the IDF officer said, the situation is in flux. Though there has been a decrease from October to November and again from November to December, any number of things could set things off anew.

Hours after he released the statistics, indeed, four Palestinians attempted stabbing attacks on Israeli troops in the West Bank, and were killed.