Poll: Israelis believe hostage deal unlikely, are split on Netanyahu’s intentions
Israel Democracy Institute finds 73.5% of Israelis pessimistic about likelihood of a deal; 39% say PM is trying to prevent one with stance on Philadelphi Corridor
Israelis seem to have largely given up on reaching a hostage release deal with Hamas anytime soon, with nearly three-quarters expressing pessimism regarding the possibility, in a survey released on Wednesday.
According to the Israel Democracy Institute’s August 2024 Israeli Voice Index, 78.5 percent of Jewish respondents and 49% of Arabs harbor doubts regarding the likelihood of an agreement in the near future.
Overall, 73.5% of respondents were pessimistic while only 20.9% were optimistic and 5.6% said they don’t know.
Respondents were also asked whether they agreed with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that recent efforts to reach a deal constitute the “last opportunity” to get the hostages home.
Among Arabs, 49% agreed, while 41% disagreed and 10% said they don’t know. Jews were split roughly evenly, with 44% saying they agreed, 45% saying they disagreed and 11% saying they don’t know.
The poll was conducted August 26-28, before the recovery on Saturday of six hostages’ bodies from Gaza, whose autopsies revealed they had been killed just days earlier. The discovery brought hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets demanding a deal, and led the Histadrut labor federation to call a one-day general strike.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under immense criticism domestically for allegedly blocking a deal with his insistence since July on continued Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border and of central Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor, which divides the north of the Strip from its south.
During a press conference on Monday evening, Netanyahu made clear he would not agree to Israel leaving the Philadelphi Corridor, even for the first 42-day phase of a hostage-ceasefire agreement.
His remarks drew a furious response from members of the opposition, with National Unity chairman Benny Gantz arguing that Israel can and “will return to Philadelphi if and when required” and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid accusing Netanyahu of embroiling Israel in “a forever war.”
Asked if Netanyahu’s demand to retain the Philadelphi Corridor is “largely based on military and strategic considerations,” 51% agreed, while 39% indicated that they believe his position is “largely intended to prevent a deal from being reached, for Netanyahu’s own political reasons,” with the rest saying they don’t know.
A majority (58.5%) of Jewish respondents agreed that Netanyahu’s reasons stem from military considerations, while the majority of Arabs (66.5%) said he is trying to prevent an agreement.
The results were also highly dependent on political orientation — among Jewish Israelis, 77.5% of left-wing respondents said Netanyahu’s motivations were political while 78% of right-wing respondents said they were strategic.
Among those opposed to Netanyahu’s position on the Philadelphi Corridor is Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has called on the security cabinet to convene and walk back its recent decision that any potential ceasefire and hostage release deal must include an Israeli military presence along the route.
According to the poll, 66% of Israelis believe the ongoing public spat between Netanyahu and his defense minister has had a “negative impact on the management of the war.”
The survey also posed to respondents a statement attributed by The New York Times to sources in the American government that “Israel has achieved all that it can military in the Gaza Strip.”
Only 24% of Jewish Israelis and 33% of Arab Israelis agreed with the statement, with majorities of both groups saying that Israel has not achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza.
The one exception was left-wing Jewish Israelis, among whom 62% agreed with the statement.
The survey found that, across political groups, Jewish Israelis who live closer to the Gaza Strip were less likely to agree that Israel has achieved all it can, including only 40.5% of left-wing Jews who live near Gaza, compared to a majority of left-wing Jews elsewhere in the country.
Despite the broad pessimism about negotiations with Hamas, more Israelis were optimistic about the future of democracy in the country in August than had been in July, though the share of optimists on both questions remained low in absolute terms — 38.5% of Jews, up from 33% in July, and 24% of Arabs, up from 21%.
A sharper jump was recorded in optimism about the future of national security, with 43% of Jews saying they were optimistic, compared to just 30% in July, and the share of Arabs who said they were optimistic nearly tripling, to 21% in August from just 8% in July.
The Israel Democracy Institute suggested this surge in optimism might be attributable to Israel’s August 25 preemptive strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which largely foiled a major rocket attack meant by the terror group as retaliation for Israel’s assassination of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr at the end of July.
The killing of Shukr came hours before Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a blast in Tehran for which Israel has neither claimed nor denied responsibility, leading to threats from Iran that it, too, would launch a retaliatory attack.
For most Jewish respondents, the threats did not significantly affect their lives, with only 27% of Jews saying the anticipation of an attack was affecting their daily behavior to a great extent, and only 40% of Jews saying it was greatly affecting their mood.
Among Arabs, however, 64% said that the anticipation of an attack by Iran and Hezbollah was significantly affecting their daily behavior, and 68% said it was affecting their mood.
There remains no consensus among Jewish Israelis about how exactly to respond to Hezbollah, though the majority favor increased action, whether a deep offensive in Lebanon, including targeting Lebanese infrastructure (46%), or more aggressive, though still limited, attacks on the terror group (21%) compared to the current skirmishes.
Among Arab Israelis, by contrast, an overwhelming majority of respondents (77%) said they supported diplomacy even at the risk of future conflict.
The survey polled 605 Hebrew speakers and 150 Arabic speakers over the internet and phone between August 26-28. It carried a margin of error of 3.58%.
