Poll shows PM’s Likud would win most seats in fresh election but lack path to power
TV survey finds Netanyahu’s rivals would win a Knesset majority if election held today, with the margin rising if theoretical slate led by former premier Naftali Bennett runs
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would remain as the largest faction in the Knesset if elections were held today, but he would have no clear route to forming a government, with his right-religious coalition receiving about 50 of the unicameral parliament’s 120 seats, according to a poll aired Thursday.
The Channel 12 survey showed public opinion had barely budged this week, even as Netanyahu started to testify in his years-long corruption trial and Israel all but destroyed Syria’s military after rebels toppled the decades-long Assad regime.
Netanyahu’s favorability ratings compared to his likely challengers remained steady, with the premier comfortably ahead of all his rivals except former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who was running neck-and-neck with the incumbent.
According to the TV poll, if the elections were held today, Likud would win 25 seats, followed by former war cabinet member Benny Gantz’s centrist National Union party with 19 seats and Opposition Leader Yair’s Yesh Atid with 16 seats, while ex-defense minister Avigdor Liberman’s hawkish-secularist Yisrael Beytenu would pick up 13 seats and The Democrats — an alliance of the left-wing Meretz and Labor parties led by ex-IDF general Yair Golan — would get 11 seats.
Both Shas, a Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party led by Netanyahu ally Aryeh Deri, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit were forecast to win nine seats apiece, and the coalition’s Ashkenazi Haredi United Torah Judaism eight seats.
The poll predicted Hadash-Ta’al, an alliance of two secularist majority-Arab parties aligned with neither the pro- or anti-Netanyahu parliamentary blocs, would receive five seats, as would Ra’am, a more religious Arab party led by MK Mahmoud Abbas that was part of the previous coalition.
The following parties would fail to pass the electoral threshold: New Hope, the right-wing party led by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, which currently has four seats; Religious Zionism, the pro-settler party headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, which currently holds seven seats; and the hardline Arab nationalist party Balad, which also failed to crack the electoral threshold last election.
Per the 12 Channel poll results, the parties in the current coalition– Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and New Hope — would together have 51 seats, while parties that supported the last government — National Unity, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beytenu, The Democrats and Ra’am — would have 64, enough for a parliamentary majority without the unaligned Hadash-Ta’al.
The pro-Netanyahu bloc would shrink even further if Bennett were to run atop his own hypothetical slate, the survey said.
In such a scenario case, Likud would get 23 seats; Bennet’s party 22, National Union 11, Yesh Atid 11, The Democrats 10, Shas nine, Yisrael Beytenu eight, UTJ eight, Otzma Yehudit eight, Hadash-Ta’al five and Ra’am five. In total, the pro-Netanyahu bloc would rake in 48 seats, while parties opposed to the premier would have a majority with 67 seats, and Hadash-Ta’al five.
Bennett was also the only Netanyahu rival whose perceived aptitude to be prime minister matched that of the incumbent. Each earned the support of 37% of respondents when asked which of the two they preferred for premier; another 22% of respondents said they supported neither, and 4% said they don’t know.
By contrast, Netanyahu led Gantz 39%-29% and Lapid 40%-27% among respondents.
The survey’s results largely tracked with those of other recent polls.
However, an outlier poll published by right-wing outlet Channel 14 on Thursday showed Netanyahu’s Likud gaining 34 seats — more than double that of the runner-up National Union, which would gain 14. The poll, which did not ask about a potential Bennett run, showed the pro-Netanyahu bloc raking in 63 seats, enough for a majority.
The Channel 12 survey was conducted by Mano Geva’s Midgam polling firm, and the Channel 14 survey was conducted by Shlomo Filber’s Direct Polls firm. Neither network provided its sample size or margin of error.
Israel’s next elections are scheduled for October 2026, but could be earlier if the coalition collapses or moves to call a snap vote.
The Times of Israel Community.