From the Liveblog of
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Retaliation from Iran, terror proxies expected to be measured to avoid a wider conflagration — analysts
Iran and its regional proxies are preparing coordinated retaliation for the deaths of Hamas’s leader and Hezbollah’s top military commander, meant to deter Israel but avert all-out war, according to sources and analysts cited by AFP.
A source close to Hezbollah says Iranian officials met in Tehran with representatives of the so-called “axis of resistance” to discuss their response to the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and commander Fuad Shukr this week.
“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” the source who had been briefed on the meeting tells AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
“There is a very strong likelihood that the response will be coordinated… among other resistance actors,” says Amal Saad, a Hezbollah researcher and lecturer at Britain’s Cardiff University.
“It’s going to greatly deepen the tactical coordination between Iran” and the terror groups it supports across the region, she says, naming Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian terror groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi force.
A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a loose alliance of pro-Iran groups, tells AFP that “Iran will lead the first response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian factions, striking military targets, followed by a second response from Hezbollah.”
The Iraqi alliance has claimed attacks on US troops, most recently over the Gaza war, before suspending them in late January. It has also claimed to have targeted Israel with drones and rockets.
The anonymous source says Hezbollah may target civilians to avenge the killing of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.
Iran and its allies are widely expected to respond militarily to the killings blamed on Israel, which has claimed responsibility only for Shukr’s death, though experts say the retaliation would be measured to avoid a wider conflagration.
“Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play into [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s hands and give him the bait or ammunition he needs to drag the US into a war,” Saad says.
“They will more than likely try to avert a war while also strongly deterring Israel from continuing with this new policy, this targeted shock and awe.”
Iranian analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi, who specializes in international relations, says “a stronger response is expected” from Tehran than its first-ever direct attack on Israeli soil in April when it fired a massive barrage of drones and missiles after a strike blamed on Jerusalem killed Revolutionary Guards in Damascus.
Zeidabadi says, “A repeat of the previous operation wouldn’t make much sense, because the missiles and drones did not hit sensitive areas or have a deterrent effect,” though he rules out a “generalized, all-out and out-of-control war.”
According to Middle East analyst Rodger Shanahan, “regime survival” is a top priority for Tehran, “the same as Hezbollah.”
“They will put a lot of pressure on the Israelis on behalf of the Palestinians, but they are not going to risk an existential threat against them,” he tells AFP.
The Times of Israel Community.